Why do we believe a random event is “due” to happen just because it hasn’t happened in a while? In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore the gambler’s fallacy — the cognitive bias that makes us think past random outcomes influence future ones, even when every event is completely independent.

Discover why streaks can fool our intuition, how our brains search for patterns in pure chance, and how recognising this bias can help you make more rational decisions in situations involving uncertainty and probability.

Studies and links:

The Gambler’s and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theories and Applications | Matthew Rabin and Dimitri Vayanos | The Review of Economic Studies https://rabin.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7721/files/rabin/files/ghfta_resf.pdf

Why do we think a random event is more or less likely to occur if it happened several times in the past? | The Decision Lab https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/gamblers-fallacy

The Gambler’s Fallacy: What It Is And How To Overcome It | Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/brycehoffman/2024/08/27/the-gamblers-fallacy-what-it-is-and-how-to-overcome-it/