The GSX Podcast

How did cocoa trading evolve from a relationship-driven physical market into the complex global industry we know today?

In this episode of the GSX Commodities Podcast, host Henry Walsh sits down with Gerry Manley, whose career spans more than four decades across EDF Man and Olam, including the landmark US$1.3 billion acquisition of ADM's cocoa business.

Gerry shares how he found his way into commodities, what cocoa trading looked like in the 1980s, and why information, relationships and market instinct were critical to success. They explore the importance of arbitrage between London and New York, the evolution of physical trading, and how Olam's expansion into processing helped reshape the global cocoa industry.

The conversation also examines the complexities of the cocoa supply chain, from butter, liquor and powder to the growing importance of vertical integration and traceability.

Gerry and Henry discuss the challenges of sustainability in cocoa-producing regions, the roles of governments and NGOs, and why meaningful progress depends on practical engagement with farmers and local communities.

From the trading floors of the 1980s to today's global cocoa supply chains, this episode offers a fascinating look at the people, decisions and market forces that have shaped one of the world's most important agricultural commodities.

Weather is becoming a market signal you can’t ignore.

Greg Oddo, Weather Strategist at Sucafina, joins Henry Walsh to break down how El Niño, record heat and tight supply-demand balances could shape coffee, cocoa, grains, cotton and other agricultural markets heading into 2027.

Greg and Henry go beyond the headlines to explore why not every weather event is tradable, why timing matters as much as the event itself, and how investors and physical buyers can get caught out by assuming the impact of a weather shift will show up all at once.
They unpack the delayed effects of El Niño, which markets and growing regions are most exposed as the pattern develops, and why some regions may only now be starting to feel the real pressure.

They also discuss how weather interacts with supply-demand balances and market positioning, the differing El Niño risks across key growing regions, how extreme heat can intensify crop stress, Brazil’s evolving coffee outlook, the varied response across cocoa, cotton, grains and other soft commodities, and the practical implications of rising input costs, farmer decision-making, hedge lifting and procurement during periods of elevated volatility.

Greg Oddo is a Weather Strategist at Sucafina, combining meteorology with futures trading and physical market experience to analyse how weather translates into commodity-market risk. His career has included roles across Noble, Engelhart and Sucafina, giving him direct exposure to both the physical and futures sides of agricultural markets.

AI is not just changing software, it is reshaping how we think about work, productivity, investment and economic growth.

In this episode of the GSX Podcast, Henry sits down with Paul Krake, founder of View from the Peak and Climate Transformed and author of Growth Without You: How AI Rewrites Work, Wealth and Investing.

Paul shares his views on where the real investment opportunities from AI may emerge, why the biggest beneficiaries may not be the companies building the technology, and how AI could transform margins and productivity across industries.

The conversation also explores the disruption of traditional investment research, the future of knowledge work, inflation and fiscal policy, and why the impact of robotics may take longer to materialise than current expectations suggest.

A wide-ranging discussion on AI, markets, employment and the changing rules of investing.

About Paul Krake

Paul Krake is the founder of View from the Peak, a macro research business focused on long-duration thematic investing, and Climate Transformed, which explores opportunities across electrification, AI and the energy transition. He is also the author of Growth Without You: How AI Rewrites Work, Wealth and Investing.

In this episode of the GSX Podcast, Henry Walsh speaks with Susan Stroud, founder of No Bull Ag, about her journey from working grain elevators along the Mississippi River to building one of the most respected independent agricultural intelligence platforms in the market today.

The discussion explores the evolution of U.S. grain logistics, the growing importance of biofuel policy, changing global trade flows, and how renewable diesel demand is reshaping soybean oil, canola, and meal markets worldwide.

Susan also shares insights into:

• The competitive dynamics of the St. Louis grain corridor
• How low-water Mississippi events changed market behavior
• The rapid growth of soybean meal exports
• Why biofuel policy is creating new winners and losers across global agriculture
• The challenges of building long-term investment certainty in renewable fuels
• The future of protein demand, feedstocks, and agricultural trade

A wide-ranging conversation covering logistics, policy, global commodity flows, and the future of agricultural markets.

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Henri-Jean Bardon, founder of Global Biodiesel, joins Henry Walsh to discuss the evolution of global biofuels markets, the rise of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, and the geopolitical importance of domestic energy security. Drawing on decades of experience across the US, Europe and Asia, Henri-Jean explains how policy settings, feedstock availability and investment incentives have shaped the renewable fuels industry, from the original US ethanol mandates through to today’s debates around carbon intensity and supply chain resilience.

This episode explores why Australia risks falling behind in renewable fuels despite strong agricultural feedstocks, the growing importance of biodiesel in global fuel markets, and why strategic domestic fuel production may become increasingly critical in a more uncertain world.

Head to

https://www.globalbiodiesel.com/ for more from Henri.

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In this episode of the GSX Podcast, I sit down with Kim Morison, founder of Argyle, to explore one of Australia’s most overlooked investment assets: water. Drawing on a career that spans commodity trading, agriculture and funds management, Kim explains how Australian water entitlements work, why they can offer both income and capital growth, and how they fit into the broader evolution of irrigated agriculture. We also discuss the rise of higher-value crops, the complexity of regional water markets, and the lessons learned from building a pioneering business through both growth and adversity.

In this episode of the GSX podcast, host Henry Walsh interviews Mike Coleman, a veteran in the commodity markets with over 43 years of experience. Mike shares his journey from starting at Cargill to launching the Merchant Commodity Fund, discussing the evolution of commodity trading, the impact of financial markets, and the unique appeal of commodities. He emphasizes the importance of active management in commodities and reflects on the changing dynamics of the market, including the challenges and opportunities for investors today.

The conversation delves into the evolving landscape of commodities and trading, focusing on the coffee industry and the challenges faced in commodity trading. It explores the growth and expansion of Sucafina, the investment in real assets, financing, market volatility, and risk management. Additionally, it discusses the importance of communication and crisis management in the industry. The conversation covers the optimization of internal meetings for productivity, the transferable skills from trading to business operations, and the potential for vertical integration in the coffee industry. It also highlights the challenges of communication in a digital workspace and the impact of high prices on market liquidity.

Takeaways

• Coffee industry growth
• Challenges in commodity trading
• Communication and crisis management Internal meetings reduced for productivity
• Communication challenges in a digital workspace

In our first episode with a guest, we speak with Mark Allen, CEO of Thera Capital Management, an Australian non-bank lender focused on food and agricultural production. We discuss Mark's background in agriculture and commodities, the industry landscape in Australia and what lessons from operating in a trading environment can be useful in other industries.

On the first episode of the GSX Podcast, myself and John Watson discuss who we are, our careers to date and the opportunities in the commodity industry.