What if the "high-probability strategy" everyone is chasing… isn't an edge at all?

In this episode of Thinking In Options, Bill Johnson breaks down one of the most dangerous misconceptions in trading—the idea that impressive results automatically mean skill. Through a satirical (but revealing) look at the so-called Lunar Phase Market Timing (LPMT) strategy, Bill exposes how easily traders can be misled by performance that looks scientific, but ultimately collapses under scrutiny.

The real lesson? There's one question almost no trader asks—and it's costing them everything:

Compared to what?

From leveraged returns disguised as brilliance to win rates that mean nothing without context, this episode dives deep into the base rate fallacy and why it quietly undermines countless trading strategies, backtests, and technical indicators.

You'll learn:

• Why a 70% win rate can be completely meaningless
• How leverage is often mistaken for skill
• The hidden dangers behind "high-probability" trades
• Why most backtests are far less reliable than they appear
• How to identify whether a strategy actually has an edge

If you've ever been tempted by a "proven system," a "scientific strategy," or a "can't-miss indicator"… this episode will change how you evaluate trading performance forever.

Because in the market, noise often looks like signal—and coincidence often looks like genius.

🎯 Before you trust any strategy, ask the question that matters most: What happens if I do nothing?