The Poker Path

The Math of the Bubble: Understanding ICM & Risk Premium


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In a cash game, a $1,000 chip is worth $1,000. In a tournament, the math isn't that simple. Welcome to the "Money Bubble," where survival becomes a currency of its own. In this episode of The Poker Path, we explore ICM (Independent Chip Model) and why your tournament life is often worth more than the chips in front of you. We break down the concept of Risk Premium—the hidden "tax" on your decisions—and explain why the presence of a payout ladder means you sometimes have to make the "mathematically incorrect" fold to make the "financially correct" play.

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