The Disconnect

The Mayhem of 2020 Was Predicted a Decade Ago


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This Researcher Predicted 2020 Would Be Mayhem. Here’s What He Says May Come Next

Not everyone took Peter Turchin seriously a decade ago when he said widespread civil unrest would sweep through the U.S. in 2020.

“They had no reason to believe I wasn’t crazy,” says Turchin, a 63-year-old researcher who teaches cultural evolution at the University of Connecticut.

In 2010, after analyzing historical cycles of instability, Turchin made a prediction that was published at the time in the journal Nature: America will suffer a period of major social upheaval beginning around 2020.

Some were skeptical, Turchin says, because “people did not understand that I was making scientific predictions, not prophecies.”

Then 2020 came. Amid a global pandemic—which has so far killed more than 116,000 people in the U.S. and resulted in record unemployment rates—national unrest erupted at the end of May over the death of George Floyd, a 46-year-old Black man who begged for his life as a white Minneapolis police officer kneeled on his neck for nearly nine minutes.

Hosts Zack Hayes and Phil Hayes breakdown the article from time.com in this week's episode of Pure Speculation. Follow us on Twitter @strugglestate

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The DisconnectBy The Disconnect

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