This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com

Good morning. As promised this is the Michael Oliver interview. Since recording this on Sunday at approximately 3:00 PM gold has rallied $35 for Monday and thus far an additional $30 for Tuesday morning please enjoy this -VBL

[L]ooking out to, let's say, Tuesday or Wednesday. If you get gold even back up toward $2,900, ….and silver—You get it up about a percent above where it closed Friday—[They’re] going to break out over a similar structure, meaning momentum says, hey, you had your correction.- M.O.

Topic Outline

* Introduction and Opening Remarks

* Michael Oliver’s Background and Career Path

* Development and Methodology of Momentum Structural Analysis

* Current Market Analysis and Observations

* Sector-Specific Analysis: Stocks and Financials

* Analysis of Gold Miners (XAU Index)

* Examination of T-Bonds and TLT

* Macro Perspectives and the Role of Government Liquidity

* Alternative Assets and Cryptocurrencies

* Closing Remarks and Q&A Highlights

* Contact Info

* BIO: About Michael

* Site: Michael Oliver’s MSA Technicals

Extended Outline (use attached transcript for keyword search)

* Introduction and Opening Remarks

* Vince Lanci welcomes Michael Oliver

* Brief introduction of Michael Oliver’s reputation and background

* Mention of Michael’s firm, Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA)

* Context: addressing both familiar subscribers and newcomers

* Michael Oliver’s Background and Career Path

* Early Career

* Hired in 1975 by E.F. Hutton in New York

* Apprenticeship under David Johnston (chairman of COMEX)

* Learning basic technical analysis (hand-drawn charts, trend lines)

* Transition to Futures Brokerage and MSA

* Moving from Hutton headquarters to field offices as a futures broker

* Starting Momentum Structural Analysis in 1992

* Evolution from simple price charts to momentum-based techniques

* Development and Methodology of Momentum Structural Analysis

* Concept and Technique

* Oscillating price relative to moving averages (using the average as a “zero line”)

* Creating oscillators that offer a different visual picture than standard price charts

* Identifying structures (floors, ceilings, breakouts) on momentum charts ahead of price

* Application Across Asset Classes

* Stocks, commodities, debt, and foreign exchange

* Historical case studies (e.g., the 1987 market action, Bunker Hunt era in silver)

* Current Market Analysis and Observations

* Stock Market Technicals and Bubbles

* Analysis of indices (NASDAQ 100, S&P) using momentum trends

* Criticism of banks’ price targets on gold and their repeated revisions

* Discussion on the infusion of “free money” and its impact on market bubbles

* Gold’s Momentum and Price Corrections

* Explanation of “benign corrections” (e.g., a 4.3% drop) in gold

* Use of daily momentum oscillators to gauge short-term pullbacks

* Concept of V-shaped bottoms where momentum recovers faster than price

* Sector-Specific Analysis: Stocks and Financials

* Momentum Structures in Stocks

* Evaluating long-term trend metrics (e.g., price vs. three-year averages)

* Identifying when price action lags behind momentum indicators

* Financial Stocks (e.g., XLF) and Related Technicals

* Discussion on structural vulnerabilities in financials

* The influence of T-bond rallies and potential government interventions

* Comparisons with historical rate cuts and market responses

* Analysis of Gold Miners (XAU Index)

* Understanding the XAU Index

* Definition: Philadelphia Gold and Silver Miners Index (different from bullion)

* Historical range of XAU relative to gold (support levels around 17.5% to 35%)

* Recent Developments and Technical Insights

* Breakdown of the XAU spread in 2008–2009 and its recovery post-2015

* Current readings showing improvement relative to gold

* Downtrend structures and projections for an upside assault toward historical resistance

* Examination of T-Bonds and TLT

* Recent Trends in T-Bonds

* Analysis of TLT (ETF for long-term T-Bonds) price action

* Observation of basing action and high yields despite temporary rallies

* Outlook and Limitations

* Expectations for a temporary rally fueled by money flowing from stocks

* Warning that any T-bond rally is likely a countertrend move

* Macro Perspectives and the Role of Government Liquidity

* The Fed Put and Market Bubbles

* Historical examples: 2001 rate cuts, 2007–2008 crisis interventions

* Discussion on how bubbles break regardless of government liquidity

* Shift in Policy Focus

* Observation that the “Fed put” has moved from stocks to bonds

* Implications of global credit/debt bubbles and potential market corrections

* Alternative Assets and Cryptocurrencies

* Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis

* Comparison of Bitcoin’s recent high and momentum decline

* Discussion of potential bubble dynamics in Bitcoin

* Observations on the overlapping behavior between Bitcoin and indices like the NASDAQ 100

* Closing Remarks and Q&A Highlights

* Summarizing Key Technical Insights

* Emphasis on long-term momentum trends over short-term fluctuations

* The importance of understanding market “structures” in various assets

* Investor Guidance

* Discussion on tactical versus strategic moves (e.g., swing trading vs. long-term holds)

* Final thoughts on how differing asset classes (gold, miners, stocks, bonds) interact during market cycles

* Contact Information and Further Engagement

* Mention of Michael Oliver’s website (olivermsa.com) for further details and reports

* BIO: About Michael

* Site: Michael Oliver’s MSA Technicals

* Social Media: MSA on X.com