TIL: ELI5

The Monty Hall Problem


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Imagine that you're a contestant on a game show. The host, Monty Hall, presents you with three doors. Behind one door is a brand new car, and behind the other two doors are goats. Your goal is to pick the door with the car behind it.

You choose one of the doors, say door number 1. But Monty doesn't open it just yet. Instead, he opens one of the other two doors, revealing a goat. Now, Monty gives you an option: you can either stick with your original choice, door number 1, or switch to the other unopened door.
What should you do? Does it matter if you switch or not?
The Monty Hall problem is a probability puzzle named after the host of the classic game show "Let's Make a Deal." It was introduced in a 1975 letter to the American Statistician magazine and has since then sparked countless debates about probabilities and intuitive reasoning.
You might think that it doesn't matter if you switch or not, as there are only two doors left and so the probability of choosing the car is 50/50. But in reality, switching doors gives you better odds of winning the car.
Here's why: when you first choose a door, there's a 1 in 3 chance of picking the car, and a 2 in 3 chance of picking a goat. Monty knows what's behind each door and will always open another door with a goat behind it. So if you initially picked a goat (which has a 2 in 3 chance), switching will lead you to the car. And if you initially picked the car (with a 1 in 3 chance), switching will lead you to a goat.
In simple terms, switching doors effectively doubles your chances of winning the car, from a 1 in 3 chance to a 2 in 3 chance. On the other hand, sticking with your original choice only gives you a 1 in 3 chance of winning the car.
In conclusion, the Monty Hall Problem demonstrates how our intuition about probabilities can sometimes be misleading. When faced with a similar decision, it's always better to analyze the situation and think about the actual odds involved. In this case, it's clear that switching doors gives you a significantly better chance of winning the car.

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TIL: ELI5By TIL