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The Negative Fundamentals For Oil Are Now Reversing. Higher oil Prices In 2023? AIA Weekly 12-17-22
The fundamentals in the oil market that were causing weakness in the oil market over the last six months now appear to be reversing and becoming tailwinds.
-Chinese economy opening up from three years of zero Covid policy. This could result in 2-3 million barrels of demand.
-SPR releases ending. Biden administration now announcing refills of SPR. 1 million barrels per day of supply off the market.
-Russian supply was juiced due to get ahead of sanctions earlier this month. 500-800k of supply off the market.
-The continued reluctance of producers to spend money on new production and development due to negative policies including windfall profit taxes being imposed by governments.
-Strong demand from emerging markets like India.
The economy in the US and EU are now entering recessions. How much will this contribute to demand destruction? If the world does not experience a GFC or Covid lockdown economic scenario, there is a good chance oil prices continue moving higher next year.
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By John Polomny
4.8
1717 ratings
The fundamentals in the oil market that were causing weakness in the oil market over the last six months now appear to be reversing and becoming tailwinds.
-Chinese economy opening up from three years of zero Covid policy. This could result in 2-3 million barrels of demand.
-SPR releases ending. Biden administration now announcing refills of SPR. 1 million barrels per day of supply off the market.
-Russian supply was juiced due to get ahead of sanctions earlier this month. 500-800k of supply off the market.
-The continued reluctance of producers to spend money on new production and development due to negative policies including windfall profit taxes being imposed by governments.
-Strong demand from emerging markets like India.
The economy in the US and EU are now entering recessions. How much will this contribute to demand destruction? If the world does not experience a GFC or Covid lockdown economic scenario, there is a good chance oil prices continue moving higher next year.