There are two things I remember from negotiation 101.

The first thing is to focus on needs, not positions. This means that rather than stick unwaveringly to your list of demands, you consider the other side’s needs. Understanding their needs allows you to develop new solutions you hadn’t considered.

We even learned to tap our pencils on the table to remind our co-negotiators to remember needs when they get stuck on positions.

The second thing I remember is that not considering needs leads to a stalemate and worse outcomes. Positions become war trenches, each side digs in and shoots anybody who ventures into the open.

There’s actually a third thing I remember. In one exercise, we had to negotiate for an orange. We were split into groups of two, each with an orange. Those who met their objectives got to leave early and go to the pub (the class was in London), and those who didn’t had to erase the whiteboard or something.

Importantly, compromises were not allowed: a half-orange wouldn’t cut it. We needed to meet our objectives completely.

So there we sat, glaring at each other over the orange with the conviction that we really should be the ones to get the orange, but without many arguments to convince the other to give it up.

The pub beckoned.

Somebody tapped a pencil.

It seemed futile; we both needed the whole damn orange. But we looked deeper into our briefs and discussed what we needed the orange for. Five minutes later, we were both at the pub.

Once we started looking into it together, we realized that one of us could meet our objectives with the entire peel, while the other needed all the fruit. So, we peeled the fruit, divided it into parts, and were out of there.

Problem solved.

If only congressional leaders were obligated to take negotiation 101, we’d all be a lot better off.

Or not, I suppose, since the real problem in this negotiation is the needs themselves: the Republicans want to demonstrate loyalty and commitment to the cause, the Democrats are fighting for political legitimacy.

To clarify the Republican position regarding Democratic needs, Trump created an AI video of himself shitting on everybody he doesn’t like. Message sent and, I imagine, received.

The Republican strategy, to the extent there is one at all, assumes that the Democratic positions are so out of touch that popular opinion will go against them, and they’ll have to give in.

So rather than negotiate, they dig deeper trenches by refusing to come to the negotiating table, offering instead to negotiate after Democrats agree to a deal (an interesting tactic I’m sure we did NOT cover in Negotiations 101), and laying off thousands of federal workers.

Democrats, in response, dig into their own trenches and add the position that the government rehire everybody.

Given the latest news, they may also insist that the president not tear down the rest of the White House. Maybe they’d go so far as to insist the US government not use its military to threaten its own citizens? Republicans may not be able to stomach that, though.

One path forward would have been to come to an agreement and then have the Republicans renege on that agreement. The Democrats would have known they’d renege, but the Republicans could have _pretended_ to agree, and the Democrats could have acted surprised when they reneged.

Instead, the Republicans put up a giant middle finger, or, I guess, large amounts of AI-generated excrement, and have generally communicated no interest in living up to any deal they come up with anyway.

The Republicans have no incentive to budge because, frankly, they’re getting everything they want, which is apparently chaos and maximum economic damage. They seem almost gleeful about the shutdown.

Trump even found a way to sneak some money to a few people, specifically the ones with the guns, presumably so that they wouldn’t storm the Capitol. Again.

What’s the path forward? There are two issues that could break the stalemate.

The first is air travel. Air Traffic Control will get messy as the already underpaid, understaffed, and overworked air traffic controllers start to suffer hunger pains after not being paid for an extended period. Remember that the biggest travel days of the year are just around the corner, and grounded commercial flights could make not negotiating very uncomfortable.

If I were an Air Traffic Controller, I’d call in sick and look for a job.

The second issue is healthcare. Premiums are skyrocketing, and people are losing Medicaid, especially in traditional republican strongholds.

Both of these issues could force the Republicans to the negotiating table.

The positions have been set, trenches dug, and guns aimed; anyone venturing into the no-man’s land of addressing needs will undoubtedly face political assassination. Maybe they could divvy up the orange in a way that meets everyone’s needs, but they’re too focused on winning the orchard to figure it out.

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