A million-and-a-half Filipinos could fall into poverty because of the pandemic, according to a discussion paper titled "Poverty, the Middle Class, and Income Distribution amid COVID-19," co-authored by Dr. Jose Ramon Albert, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies. 

In this study, a million-and-a-half Filipinos creating a new kind of poor is neither the best- nor worst-case scenario. It’s midway, where income declines by 10%. 

Mr. Albert explains the simulations and scenarios he and his co-authors ran to arrive at their numbers. He tells BusinessWorld reporter Beatrice Laforga that the government’s emergency subsidy programs minimized the pandemic’s impact on poverty. Without financial aid, he said, 5.5 million Filipinos could have been pushed into poverty.

Recorded remotely on September 1. Produced by Nina M. Diaz, Paolo L. Lopez, and Sam L. Marcelo.