The Other Hand

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Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This episode covers a fast-moving mix of markets, macroeconomics, and geopolitics. Chris and Jim move from oil and AI-driven equity volatility to cybersecurity scares, European weakness, UK consumer strain, and the growing pressure on France and the European car industry.The conversation is wide-ranging but tied together by one theme: the future is arriving faster than markets, governments, and businesses seem ready for.

• In this episode, Chris opens with oil at $114 a barrel and argues the move may reflect supply-demand tightening, stock drawdown, or delayed effects from earlier war-related shocks.
• They discuss the recent sell-off in AI-linked stocks and the simultaneous rally in US bonds, with lower Treasury yields driven by weak tech sentiment, extreme bearish bond positioning, and a search for safety.
• Jim highlights Meta’s quarterly results and the market’s growing focus on capital expenditure, compute infrastructure, and return on investment rather than revenue growth alone.
• The pair examine AI’s role in cybersecurity, including the discovery of major vulnerabilities and the alarming claim that 60% of British SMEs that suffer a successful cyberattack go out of business within six months.
• They note how AI is being used both to find vulnerabilities and to patch them, raising questions about whether the industry is getting a free marketing boost from each new security scare.
• Jim brings in inflation and PMI data from Japan and the euro area, showing that price pressure remains persistent while growth is slowing across the continent.
• France becomes a major focus, with weak PMIs, a budget deficit around 5% of GDP, debt near 119% of GDP, and 10-year borrowing costs above 5%, prompting comparisons with Greece and Spain.
• The discussion turns to UK consumers, with retail sales down 0.4% on the month and consumer confidence falling sharply, reinforcing the pressure heading into the next budget.
• They cover the UK mortgage market recovery, with first-time buyers accounting for 57% of Q3 mortgage drawdowns, while also contrasting current activity with the far larger pre-crisis peak.
• The European car market is framed as being under structural stress from Chinese competition, tariffs, raw material costs, and the EV transition, even as battery electric and hybrid sales continue to grow.
• Chris and Jim also discuss US tourism weakness, concerns about travel under Trump, and the political and reputational damage this could do to inbound visitor numbers.
• The episode closes on Ireland’s energy dependence on imported fossil fuels, planning resistance to renewables and data centres, and a furious condemnation of the Trump administration’s rhetoric on Putin.

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• In this episode, Jim outlines the backdrop to the UK autumn budget: inflation rising to 3.5%, transport inflation at 6.6%, higher borrowing, and the likelihood of another Bank of England rate increase.
• The pair discuss the argument that the UK’s strength lies in high value professional services, including consulting, legal work, computer programming, and AI related business investment.
• They note that UK innovative companies have absorbed more than one-third of European venture capital in the first nine months of the year, reinforcing the case for not damaging the sector with heavier taxes.
• Jim and Chris revisit the debate over tax complexity, using Tim Harford’s critique of Britain’s “bad taxes” and examples like VAT oddities, National Insurance, and the enormous length of the UK tax code.
• The conversation highlights how complexity creates demand for tax lawyers and accountants, while AI may eventually let ordinary people search for loopholes or understand the system more easily.
• In energy, they discuss the UK government’s approval of the Jackdaw gas field and the proposed Rosebank oil field, framing both as pragmatic responses to energy security, jobs, and winter heating needs.
• They debate the tension between climate goals and the reality that the UK still needs fossil fuels, especially when domestic supply may have lower carbon consequences than importing liquefied gas from overseas.
• Chris explains that high oil and gas prices may partly reflect countries quietly rebuilding strategic reserves after running them down.
• The second half shifts to youth mental health, prompted by a Jigsaw report showing increased demand in Ireland for services and a deterioration in young people’s mental health.
• They explore possible causes: mobile phones, social media, war, housing pressure, job insecurity, AI related anxiety, and the weakening of friendship and community networks.
• Chris argues that data on mental health is hard to interpret because increased reporting may be driving some of the apparent rise, but he also notes there are real service backlogs, including 400,000 children waiting for mental health support in the UK.
• The discussion ends on a broader reflection that material living standards have improved over decades, so the explanation for worsening wellbeing may lie more in social connection than in economics alone.

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This episode ranges from market history and Irish trade data to France’s fiscal bind, the geopolitics of AI infrastructure, billionaire wealth, and the UK’s welfare system. Chris and Jim move quickly between economics, politics, and technology, with a recurring theme: systems that look stable on the surface are under far more strain than most people realize.They also cover the strategic risks of AI and data centers, the pressure on Europe’s car industry from China, and the scale of the UK’s benefits problem, especially for younger people. It’s a wide-ranging conversation anchored in hard numbers and blunt political judgments.

• In this episode, Chris and Jim revisit Black Monday and how shocks in markets can create outsized winners in bonds when equities sell off.
• Jim walks through Ireland’s merchandise trade data for the first eight months of the year, including a 23.9% drop in exports overall and major swings in chemical and pharma trade.
• They discuss China’s stronger than expected Q3 growth, driven by policy easing, exports, high-tech manufacturing, AI-related components, and EVs.
• Chris argues that some of China’s export strength likely reflects dual-use trade tied to Russia and Iran, especially military components.
• The conversation turns to France, where protests are framed as a symptom of a deeper fiscal and pension crisis rather than only street unrest.
• Chris says France’s pay as you go pension system, low pension age, and rising bond yields point to a real debt and fiscal problem.
• They examine the Franco-German push to soften the 2035 internal combustion engine phaseout, which Chris and Jim both view as a strategic retreat in the face of Chinese EV competition.
• AI infrastructure becomes a major focus, with concern over delayed data centers, financing pressure, community backlash, and whether current AI revenues can justify the investment boom.
• Chris raises a strategic security concern: if AI and cloud systems are controlled by a small number of US tech oligarchs, they can be used as leverage through a simple off switch.
• They discuss the moral and economic case around billionaires, including arguments that innovators create large social value even if wealth is also shaped by privilege and unfair tax treatment.
• The episode closes on the UK welfare system, where Chris lays out alarming data on sickness benefits, young people being written off, and a system that appears to trap people rather than help them back into work.

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Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

• Chris argues the Irish government is spending too much of temporary corporation tax revenue on permanent commitments, citing IFAC’s warning that the state is spending six out of every seven euros from corporation tax.

• saying ministers faced strong departmental pressure and that the six percent spending target, even if imperfect, may be a reasonable outcome in context.

• both agree the budget was better for taxpayers than last year, but Chris says the increases in thresholds and credits still lag inflation and do not restore real purchasing power.

• with Jim welcoming the cut from 33 percent to 31 percent but arguing it should eventually return to 20 percent.

• with Jim noting September CPI at 4.1 percent, driven by mortgage interest, electricity, and home heating oil rather than the domestic economy.

• , with overall output up 5.8 percent year on year, but the modern sector down 6.8 percent while the traditional sector edged up 0.8 percent.

• after Chris cites a UK report showing a 50 percent increase in reported autism and ADHD among young people since 1993.

• including long waiting lists, NEET levels, poverty, housing, screen addiction, environmental anxiety, war, and fear of AI-driven job loss.

• saying many young people expect to be less well off than their parents because they struggle to build assets, especially through housing.

• with Jim calling it reprehensible and arguing for a far larger increase or abolition, while Chris notes that only 4% of estates in the UK actually pay any inheritance tax.

• especially the planned live-streaming of a firing squad execution and restrictions on skilled immigration through H1B and green card sponsorship pathways.

• suggests modern platforms inherited their attention-grabbing mechanics from the porn industry, helping explain addictive scrolling and algorithmic design.

• with Chris and Jim noting Zack Polanski’s by-election setback and criticising the party’s shift away from environmental politics toward hard-left activist positions.

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• In this episode, Minister Jack Chambers says Budget 27 was built around balance - protecting long-term capital investment while responding to cost of living pressures.
• Chambers says next year’s capital investment will exceed 20 billion euro, and that day-to-day spending growth has been brought down from an average of 9% to about 6%.
• Jim Power argues the budget is positive overall, especially on personal tax relief, the investment account, and the reduction in capital gains tax from 33% to 31%.
• Power warns that Ireland’s public finances depend heavily on a small number of multinational firms, pointing to concentration risk in corporation tax receipts and the need for prudent spending.
• Cormac Fitzgerald says SMEs remain under pressure from labour costs, energy costs, PRSI increases, auto-enrolment, and rising compliance burdens.
• Fitzgerald welcomes the new investment savings scheme and says SME support should be strengthened in the Finance Bill or Budget 28.
• Cróna Clohisey says the budget’s administrative simplification measures matter, especially the removal of real-time benefit reporting requirements.
• Clohisey also stresses that labour costs are the biggest issue for SMEs and says employers’ PRSI relief would have helped.
• Chambers repeatedly returns to the need for public spending efficiency, saying the state must deliver better outcomes rather than simply spend more.
• The panel agrees that simplification, predictable regulation, and better delivery from the state are essential if Ireland is to support both business growth and public trust.

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