El Niño may begin as a patch of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean, but its effects can be felt across the globe. In this episode of Sanity Check, David R. Legates explores one of the most powerful climate phenomena on Earth and explains why forecasters are closely watching the possibility of a particularly strong El Niño developing in the months ahead.

What exactly is El Niño? Why are scientists watching the Pacific Ocean so closely this year? And how can changing ocean temperatures near South America influence rainfall in California, droughts in Australia, Atlantic hurricanes, agricultural production, wildfire risk, and even food prices around the world?

Dr. Legates walks through the science behind the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), explains how El Niño differs from La Niña, and discusses what current forecasts may mean for weather patterns in the United States and beyond. Along the way, he offers a reminder that while climate models can provide valuable guidance, nature often retains a few surprises of its own.

Whether you've heard the term for years or are encountering it for the first time, this episode provides a clear and accessible introduction to one of the most influential drivers of global weather.

Show notes:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-01921-6

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/european-forecast-super-el-nino-strongest-ever-ocean-pacific-atlantic-hurricane-season

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

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