The Real Estate News Brief: PCE Shows Weaker Inflation, Best Markets for SFR Returns, Savings Gap Grows for Apartment Renters

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 1st, 2023… new PCE numbers show inflation is weakening, where investors are reaping the biggest returns for single-family rentals, and how much apartment renters are saving if they don’t buy.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and a favorable report on inflation. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released a report on the February Personal Consumption Index, or PCE, and it shows a mild .3% increase. That’s down from a .6% increase in January, and suggests that the Fed may be getting the upper hand on high prices. With this report, the yearly rate dropped from 5.3% to 5%, which is the lowest it’s been in more than a year and a half. (1)   Senior Federal Reserve officials are suggesting that another quarter point rate hike is still needed, before they call for a pause. That would be decided at the Fed’s next meeting in May as Fed officials also weigh the risk of further interest rate hikes on the banking system.   The government revised their Q4 GDP for a third time. It was initially 2.9%. Last month, it was lowered to 2.7%. The government is now saying it was 2.6%. As MarketWatch reported, the GDP was reduced because data shows weaker consumer spending, and a decline in corporate profits. (2)   The weekly jobless report shows 198,000 people applied for benefits. That’s a three-week high, but it’s still a very low number and indicates that the labor market remains strong in the face of high-interest rates and a potential recession. (3)   Reports on housing include the latest Case-Shiller home price report. The national index fell .2% in January, while the 20-city index was down .4%. Year-over-year home prices are still 2.5% higher, but that’s down from 4.6% last month. (4)   Home buyers seem to be warming up to the idea of higher mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors reports that pending sales were up for a third month in a row. They rose .8% in February. That’s after a huge 8.1% surge in January. If you compare the numbers to one year ago, they are down 21.1%. (5)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates didn’t move much in the last week, but they remain at a lower level than recent highs. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down one point to 6.32%, which is essentially the same as the previous week. The 15-year dropped 12 points to 5.56%. (6)   In other news making headlines…   More Sellers Sitting on the Sidelines   While it seems the spring buying season is producing a surge in buyers, and mortgage rates have come down slightly, sellers are still in a wait-and-see mode. Realtor.com says that new listings fell again in March, and are down 20% compared to a year ago. The active inventory is about 60% higher year-over-year, but that’s because homes are taking longer to sell.   Realtor.com says that homes are now sitting on the market for an average of 54 days. That’s up from an average of 36 days last spring. Chief economist, Danielle Hale, says shoppers are very sensitive to mortgage rates and they “only jump back in the market when rates dip.” She says rates will play a big role in whether the housing market “bumps along or picks up speed this year.”   Best Counties for Single-Family Rentals   If you’re trying to decide where you might get the best returns for a single-family rental, real estate data firm ATTOM just issued its Q1 2023 Single-Family Rental Market report. ATTOM analyzed 212 U.S. counties with a population of at least 100,000.    The report shows the overall single-family rental yield increasing from last year in 91% of those counties. It was 6.7% last year, and rises to 7.5% this year. Rents are rising faster than home prices in many counties. CEO, Rob Barber says: “Rents for single-family homes are growing while prices have flattened out, which has helped boost yields for landlords for the first time in at least several years.”   Three of the top five counties for rental returns are in Florida, including River County, Florida, in the Sebastian-Vero Beach area; Collier County, Florida, in the Naples area; and Charlotte County, Florida, in the Punta Gorda area. A few other counties with high rental yields include Chicago’s Cook County, Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, and West Palm Beach’s Palm Beach County.    Looking at the top 50 counties for rental returns: 29 are in the South, 13 are in the Midwest, eight are in the Northeast, and none are in the West.   Big Savings for Apartment Renters   The savings gap is growing for people who rent an apartment instead of buying a home. The National Multifamily Housing Council says it’s now more than $1,000 dollars more expensive per month to buy a home than it is to rent an apartment – $1,176 to be exact. That’s the widest gap in 15 years. (9)   Apartment rent growth has been slowing. It was only up 2.6% in March and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. Vacancies are also returning to normal levels. They are currently at 6.6%. That’s up from 6.4% in February. (10)   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. You’ll also find market data at our website, along with investing education and opportunities. You need to become a member to access some of our information, but it’s free to join and will only take a few minutes.    We also ask that our listeners subscribe to the podcast, if you haven’t done so already. And if you have a minute, please leave us a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-softens-in-february-pce-finds-785c116e?mod=home-page   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-gdp-in-fourth-quarter-trimmed-again-to-2-6-on-weaker-consumer-spending-663e9a5b?mod=search_headline   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-rise-to-three-week-high-of-198-000-but-layoffs-still-extremely-low-3efde979?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-price-rises-slow-again-in-january-with-western-markets-leading-declines-2ea97cfb?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-pending-home-sales-rise-for-the-third-month-in-a-row-in-february-18c2a392?mod=economic-report   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/more-home-sellers-are-sitting-out-of-the-spring-housing-market.html   8 - https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/attom-2023-single-family-rental-market-report/   9 - https://www.globest.com/2023/03/31/renting-an-apartment-is-now-1175-cheaper-per-month-than-owning-a-home/   10 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/rent-growth-drops-to-pre-covid-levels.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c∥=realestate