The Real Estate News Brief: Testimony from the Fed Chief, Home Price Forecast, Rent Growth Rebound

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 4th, 2023... the Fed Chief's testimony before Congress for the current week along with a forecast on home prices and what national rent growth is doing for single family homes and multi-families.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with comments from Fed Chief Jerome Powell about the central bank's fight against inflation. He spoke before the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee on March 7th and 8th. Bloomberg reports that he softened his tone slightly on the second day, saying that Fed officials will wait for new data on Jobs and inflation before they decide on the size of a rate hike when they meet later this month. He did say the rates will likely go higher than previously anticipated, but that depends on the new data and whether it indicates that the economy is still running hot. (1)   Recent economic data shows strong job growth and inflation that seems to be ticking higher, instead of lower. But the Fed will be getting February reports on jobs, inflation, and retail sales before the Fed’s next meeting on March 21st and 22nd. Those reports will have a strong influence on the central bank’s next move. Short-term rates are currently running between 4.5% and 4.75%. The Fed has penciled in a target range of 5% to 5.25%.    The weekly jobless report shows that initial unemployment claims were down again, for the seventh week in a row. They’ve been holding steady below 200,000, which is near a historic low. Last week, there were 192,000 new claims. Continuing claims also dropped. They were down 5,000 to 1.66 million. (2)   Pending home sales bumped higher in January. The National Association of Realtors says that contract signings for existing homes rose 8.1%. That’s a big bump, and the highest since June of 2020. That follows a pull-back in home sales as mortgage rates pushed higher, and then came back down slightly. Unfortunately, they have been rising again so we may see a new lull in home sales. NAR expects an 11.1% drop in existing-home sales for 2023. (3)   Construction spending was down slightly in January. The government says it dropped .1%. Spending is up overall, at 5.7% for the past year. As for single-family construction, it was down 1.7% in January. (4)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates continue to move higher, as I mentioned. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 15 basis points this last week, to 6.65%. The 15-year was up 13 points to 5.89%. (5) The Mortgage News Daily has the average pegged at 7.1% for the 30-year. The Daily’s COO, Matthew Graham says: “Rates continue to move at the suggestion of economic data, and the data hasn’t been friendly. This is scary considering this week’s data is insignificant compared to several upcoming reports.” (6)   In other news making headlines…   Lower Home Prices in the Coming Months?   As mortgage rates hover in the 7% range, home prices will likely head lower in the coming months. According to Redfin, the typical U.S. home sold for just over $350,000 in February. That’s down .6% from the previous year, and the first time prices have fallen since February 2012. But that’s not making homes more affordable. The typical mortgage payment has hit a record high of $2,520. (7)   Redfin’s Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr says: “Mortgage rates rising to the 7% range was the straw that broke the camel’s back, dampening home buying demand and leading to sellers asking less for their homes.” He expects prices to come down a bit more in the months ahead, but he says: “First-time buyers hoping to score a major deal this year are likely out of luck… because so few homeowners are listing their homes for sale.”   When it comes to affordability, Redfin says that just 1 in 5 home listings were affordable last year. That’s down from 2 in 5 in 2021. (8)   National Rent Growth Rebound   Multi-family rent growth did a u-turn in February, with the first positive number in several months. Apartmentlist.com reports that after months of decline, it was up by .3% in February to a year-over-year increase of 3%. The research team says it’s following a seasonal trend and shows that rental demand is rebounding. (9)   Single-family rent growth dropped by about 50% in December, but the latest report from CoreLogic shows that that annual rate is 6.4%. The report says that the average rent for a detached rental home had gone up about $300 a month over the past two years. And that markets in Florida, including Orlando and Miami have posted the highest gains. (10)   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. If you’re interested in learning more about real estate investing, please click on the Learn tab. When you become a member, you’ll have full access to the site. That includes our market data, property teams, investment counselors, and a list of property tours that RealWealth is offering over the next few months.   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-08/powell-says-no-decision-made-on-speeding-up-pace-of-rate-hikes#xj4y7vzkg   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-again-and-stay-below-200-000-for-seventh-week-in-a-row-523a6d27?mod=home-page   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-rise-8-1-in-january-largest-increase-since-june-2020-1896d2d7?mod=search_headline   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-construction-spending-falls-slightly-in-january-87b95bce?mod=mw_latestnews   5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   6 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/mortgage-rates-back-over-7percent.html   7 - https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-sale-prices-fall-first-time/   8 - https://www.redfin.com/news/share-of-homes-affordable-2022/   9 - https://rentalhousingjournal.com/national-rent-growth-turns-positive-in-february/?utm_source=Master+Vendors&utm;_campaign=88767b9e22-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_03_01_02_51&utm;_medium=email&utm;_term=0_-88767b9e22-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D   10 - https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/corelogic-us-annual-rent-price-growth-dropped-by-nearly-half-in-december/