The US-Iran ceasefire may still technically be holding — but experts worry and warn that it is already beginning to rot. In this conversation, we break down why Iran is targeting the UAE, why the Strait of Hormuz remains the key pressure point, and why Trump’s attempt to claim victory may be colliding with economic reality.

Alan Eyre - distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, argues that the real test is not rhetoric, press conferences, or military theatre — it is whether ships actually return to Hormuz. If maritime traffic does not resume, the crisis could become far more expensive, far more global, and far harder for Washington to control.

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