There is a pattern I see over and over again in the way crime is reported and analyzed.

Facts appear.

Evidence exists.

But instead of asking the fundamental questions — the questions that reconstruct what actually happened — we jump immediately to narrative.

The story forms before the analysis does.

And when that happens, something dangerous occurs.

The investigation stops asking:

What must be true for this event to occur?

And instead starts asking:

What story sounds plausible to the audience?

That is not investigation.

That is storytelling.

So today’s Saturday Rant is about four stories from this week where First Principles thinking would have produced a very different conversation.

1️⃣ Michigan Synagogue Vehicle Attack

Failure: Treating structured targeting as randomness.

2️⃣ ISIS Supporter Shooting at ODU

Failure: Ignoring known constraint violations in threat management.

3️⃣ Wi-Fi Jammer Narrative in Guthrie Coverage

Failure: Violating physical constraints of technology.

4️⃣ “Crime of Opportunity” Narrative

Failure: Replacing analysis with shorthand explanations.

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