belief. But it’s a belief system itself—a ritual, with all the failure

modes that rituals have. And the receipts are right there in the

replication crisis.

Further reading

Scientific Ritual — the article this lecture is based on

p-values — the technical companion: Fisher, Neyman-Pearson, the

hybrid mess

of scientific evidence — on the “no evidence” tension and the

homeopathy/parachute paradox

is ideology — science as one belief system among several

sage — other ways of knowing; the MD/PhD distinction

fact — on what science actually does

ritual — ritual as a knowledge-production strategy

dinner-table meditation example

System 1 and System 2 — on Kahneman’s dual-process framework

effect — on why “works for some, not for others” is a feature, not a

bug

positive-psychology critique

calming down (lecture) — the broader positive-psychology audit

(lecture) — the cognitive-bias series

worse (lecture) — the previous episode; a worked example of reading

a literature

References

The replication crisis

itself

the reproducibility of psychological science, Science 349

(6251)

crisis

Schirm & Lazar (2019), Moving to a World Beyond “p <

0.05”

Statistical ritualism

Rituals: The Replication Delusion and How We Got There, Advances

in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science

statistics and scientific crisis, Significance 15 (4)

Statistical Crisis in Science — the “garden of forking paths”

paper

I don’t like so-called Bayesian hypothesis testing

p-values, Bayes factors,

and software

Workers — where the 5% threshold appears as an illustrative

example

Bayes-factor thresholds (BF > 3 substantial, BF > 10 strong) come

from

Bayesian statistics software with default priors

Specific

replication-crisis casualties

paper; Carney’s later statement

withdrawing support

Multilab Preregistered Replication of the Ego-Depletion Effect

priming paper; failed Doyen

et al. (2012) replication

Dynamics of Wishful Thinking — demolishing the 3:1

positivity ratio

mindset — replication concerns documented in Sisk et al. (2018) and

Bahník & Vranka (2017)

meta-analytic critique in Credé, Tynan &

Harms (2017)

Books cited in the lecture

Navel and Other Essays

Pi

Other

Dawkins on militant atheism (TED) — the “evidence vs. faith”

framing

(e.g. ManyLabs)