The Longer Version: One of the most interesting gambling debates happening in New York right now is not about casinos (New York has long since legalized and licensed them), or mobile sports betting (also now legal, with some limits, since 2022).
It’s about online prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which let users buy and sell so-called “event contracts” on things that may or may not happen in sports, politics, culture and the economy.
Like, say, will the U.S. go to war with Iran, or will the Los Angeles Angels defeat the Baltimore Orioles by more than 2.5 runs?
According to the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates these markets, event contracts are akin to other financial derivatives traded among users on commodity markets. One major difference from traditional betting is that there is no bookie or “House” setting the odds. The prices are set by the evolving consensus of the market.
But if buying and selling event contracts on whether the Angels will cover the point spread feels a lot like sports betting to you, well, New York State Attorney General Letitia James agrees.
James sued Kalshi for $36 billion in July alleging its operations amount to unregulated sports gambling in violation of New York law. New York had previously sued cryptocurrency firms Coinbase and Gemini Titan on similar grounds, and many states are pushing for greater regulation.
Whether or not the markets meet the legal definition of gambling, they’re easily accessible via mobile devices and used by college students for many of the same reasons.
We asked Jessica about that in part of our conversation that didn’t make the final edit.
Host: I think of things that are not casinos — but well, maybe they are? Things like financial markets, things like crypto, or even prediction marketplaces. You can bet on almost anything. The technology has made it so easy. Should we be paying more attention to that now, maybe perhaps as we should have with the sports betting stuff a decade ago?
JM: Yes, we do ask that question in our research if students are engaging in that activity, and there's about a quarter of students who are. So it is happening, and it isn't illegal right now, and it isn't considered gambling, but that's the legal fight right now.
It sure looks a lot like gambling, and this is maybe an opportunity to catch this before it really becomes a bigger issue like some of the other gambling activities have. Certainly, it looks like it's coming just the way that mobile sports betting did.
Go deeper If you or someone you know is dealing with problem gambling or substance use, you can reach the NY HOPEline by calling 1-877-8-HOPENY (467369) or texting HOPENY (467369)
UAlbany's Counseling & Psychological Services and Office of Health Promotion have a wealth of resources for students.
Know the Odds is another tool for understanding problem gambling, as is newyorkproblemgamblinghelp.org.
If you’re looking for help, the New York State Office of Addiction Services and Supports (OASAS) has a tool to find nearby treatment programs and other services.
If you’re interested in an in-depth look at how the legalization of sports betting happened so quickly in the United States, check out Michael Lewis’ podcast Against the Rules, which did an entire season on the subject.
Jessica’s other work, through a federally funded program known as Project ACCESS, has focused on HIV, substance use and suicide prevention. Read more about that here.
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***DARK MATTER UPDATE: Check out this update, newly announce this week, to February's episode on how UAlbany physicists are advancing the search for direct proof of dark matter. They found...something?
Episode credits Audio editing and production by Scott Freedman
Photo provided
Hosted and written byJordan Carleo-Evangelist