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Before we get into everything, I want to apologize for being behind on updating the Google sheet that holds all of our data. I am working on a solution that should make that much easier. I will get back in there and start making updates soon! Thank you all for your patience with me right now!

Market Wisdom

“[Mr. Market] has incurable emotional problems… [he gets] depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.”— Warren Buffett

Weekly Roundup

S&P 500 fell roughly 2%Dow about -2%Nasdaq near -3%

The 10-year Treasury yield edged down ~7 bps to ~4.07%The VIX finished in the low-23s after spiking midweek.Gold hovered a little above $4,050/oz.Oil drifted under $58–60. Bitcoin fell ~8–9% to the mid-$80Ks.

The markets remained weak. Even solid numbers out of NVDA couldn’t help strengthen things.

Returns this week were brought to you by… Extreme Fear.

The AI euphoria phase is slowing down and of course people are terrified… try watching the news right now without being scared about the bubble popping.

The reality is that it is all about perspective… Yes the past few weeks have been rough the SPY is down around 5% and my portfolios (in some cases) are down 10%.

Why am I not sounding the alarm? Well, why would I?

In the photo above, you can see earlier this year from Feb 19 to Apr 8. The market lost nearly 20% in those few short months. It then proceded to go on a 33% run, but again the media isn’t trying to sell you stability. They make more money when they sell fear and greed.

We are in a fine position right now, yes, things are weak, but with nearly 50% of our cash on the sidelines I couldn’t feel more comfortable with this positioning.

Nvidia sat at the center of everything.

The company cleared a very high bar — Q3 revenue about $57B with data center north of $50B and Q4 guided near $65B — and still could not carry the market for long as traders faded the initial pop and leaned into “sell the news.”

Again, the news is there to sell you on fear and greed.

Around that, capital kept flooding into AI infrastructure and models: Google launched Gemini 3 across products, Brookfield outlined up to $100B for AI assets, Anthropic inked fresh multibillion-dollar compute commitments with Big Tech and chip partners, Saudi-linked groups announced large data-center plans, and Jeff Bezos surfaced with a new industrial-AI venture.

Even bulls acknowledged froth risk — Sundar Pichai warned about “elements of irrationality” — and the market traded that way, with intraday reversals and sharp factor whips.

What is my opinion here? Great, let the market fall — we are overvalued!

I went ahead and put together a quick market indicator on my website: The Simple Signal that you can go check out.

If you scroll down below this you’ll come across something called “The Buffet Indicator” which is a fancy way of looking at how overvalued stocks are relative to GNP. It should come as no surprise that we are wildly overvalued.

The point is… we are 50% in cash because we don’t like the current market value, and would prefer to allocate capital when we get back down into the 113% - 138% range.

Macro and policy pulled in opposite directions this week. October CPI and jobs were still disrupted, and investors were forced to handicap the December Fed meeting off partial and delayed inputs.

Their meeting notes (aka the minutes) showed a wider FOMC split, but a late-week rate-cut nudge from NY Fed’s John Williams steadied risk (sending the 10-year a bit lower). Elsewhere, Japan approved a ¥21.3T stimulus that leaned into defense and industry, adding duration questions for JGBs. On the U.S. industrial side, rare-earth onshoring headlines resurfaced as policymakers try to cut China's exposure in magnets and materials.

I would love to see some of the mineral stocks trade lower to allow us to make “value buys” in our AI Second Hand Effects portoflio with these.

Walmart beat and raised on 28% U.S. e-commerce growth and share gains, while Target cut guidance and Home Depot missed again as big-ticket projects cooled; Lowe’s outperformed on cost control. Gap surprised with its best ex-pandemic comp growth since 2017. Early Black Friday promotions arrived across the board, but the University of Michigan sentiment gauge slid toward the low-50s, and a rise in household utility delinquencies hinted at stretched wallets. If there is a holiday winner’s circle, it is tilting toward value, essentials, and retailers with strong digital execution.

As a reminder, markets are irrational. They are there to serve you, do not them control you (see the market wisdom above). Walmart has an incredible quarter, and I guarentee you that if the market continues down, WMT stock will end up lower than what it was before their earnings came out.

Is that rational? No, but that is how you make money in this market. You wait and wait and wait, and when you finally see an incredible opportunity you make a move.

We are in the waiting phase.

Meta won a major antitrust case that removes a breakup overhang tied to Instagram and WhatsApp. Cloudflare resolved a broad outage tied to a configuration error, a reminder of how concentrated critical web plumbing has become.

Speaking of which, Cloudflare is shaping up to be a “back up the truck” opportunity. We saw the exact same thing happen to Crowdstrike earlier in the year… I mean do people not think before they sell?

Here is a July 19, 2025 article about Crowdstrike stock after their servers crashed:”The cybersecurity specialist’s share price was down 8.5% as of 11 a.m. ET, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Shares had been down as much as 15.4% earlier in the daily session.

With a new update that it rolled out, CrowdStrike inadvertently triggered system locks for hardware using Microsoft‘s Windows operating system. The issue has caused massive global outages for information technology systems, and investors are dumping the company’s stock in response.”

Sounds like a buying opportunity… not now, but soon.

Roblox moved to age-verify chat and separate minors and adults, adding to a wider scrutiny cycle that also hit AI-enabled toys after an unsafe-content scare. In media, Warner Bros. Discovery formally drew multiple suitors for all or parts of the company, but financing and regulatory math will decide how real any bid is.

Crypto traded like a high-beta macro asset and then some. Bitcoin knifed from the low-$90Ks to the mid-$80Ks before a small Friday bounce, dragging crypto-exposed equities and triggering forced deleveraging. MicroStrategy kept buying on weakness, but ETF outflows and tighter financial conditions outweighed dip demand this week.

Stock Research

Our stock research is meant to present subscribers with stocks that have the potential for outsized returns. Not all of these stocks make it into my portoflios, but some will every now and again.

We started building out our stock research archive right before the market took its turn downward, so our track record doesn’t look incredibly stellar, but as time goes on and markets normalize, I expect this to catch up and turn around!

Regardless, these research articles should be used as a tool to find potential new investments for your portfolio.

We are keeping track of everything using the thesimpleside.news/stock-research website, and you can follow along there as well.

Recent Articles

Now, alongside these research articles, I am also tracking stocks I call “Berkshire Buy”, which I think are companies that the legendary Warren Buffett and his company Berkshire Hathaway might buy.

Not all of these companies make it into my personal portfolios, but a few have, like OXY, NSSC, and QLYS.

Portfolio Information

Overextended & Oversold Positions

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