Degenerate Business School

The Specter of Global War


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The fog of war hangs over everything, including the parochial interests of financial markets. What will the crisis in Ukraine lead to in the end? Or even myopically...this year. Terrifyingly, no one can say. But here's what seems likely in the prosaic language of markets:

  • A surge in the price of commodities precipitated by the conflict (see wheat, oil)
  • An already febrile state of inflation made more explosive by commodity supply shocks
  • A flight to conventional financial safety (US treasuries, the US dollar)
  • A tenuous hand of support for the S&P 500 in the form of the Federal Reserve balance sheet
  • A Great Muddling in Crypto

Which is to say...much hangs in the balance. And in times like these, what's a person to do? For now we observe for lack of a better idea.

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Degenerate Business SchoolBy Degenerate Business School

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