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The Subsidy Cliff: What Happens When the Incentives Run Out
Ontario Rentals: It’s Not Too Much Supply—It’s Too Expensive (Absorption Crash, Policy Risk, and What to Buy)
Addy Saeed reviews Ontario’s multifamily market using CMHC, Rentals.ca, OSFI, and Urbanation signals, arguing the issue isn’t “too much rental housing” but too much new supply priced above what renters can afford. CMHC absorption at completion fell from 89% (May 2025) to 64% (May 2026), with completed unabsorbed inventory up 54% to 12,829 units nationally, while CMHC flags Ontario methodology as under review. Rentals.ca data shows 42% of renters target under $1,500 versus a $2,029 average asking rent, and 70% cite affordability as the top challenge. He discusses OSFI’s stability buffer cut as capacity (not lower rates), rent-control policy risk (including Ontario’s post-2018 exemption), rising GTHA vacancy in post-2000 buildings (5.4%), major long-lag approvals (Vaughan’s 9,950 units), Brad Lamb’s subsidy-dependent pivot to purpose-built rentals, and student housing as a niche with visa-cap demand risk, concluding oversupply risk is concentrated in levered, premium, incentive-dependent new builds while older below-replacement-cost stock is more insulated.
00:00 Absorption Shock Intro
00:57 CMHC Absorption Data
03:00 Renters Affordability Gap
04:54 OSFI Buffer Cut
06:16 Rent Control Policy Risk
08:21 Fitzrovia Lease Up Reality
09:40 Vaughan Mega Approval Lag
11:05 Brad Lamb Subsidy Cliff
13:13 Student Housing Exception
15:11 How Much Is Too Much
18:05 Wrap Up And Disclosures
About Your Hosts:
Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.
Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/about
Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com
View all episodes
By Addy Saeed from LearnInvestManage.comOntario Rentals: It’s Not Too Much Supply—It’s Too Expensive (Absorption Crash, Policy Risk, and What to Buy)
Addy Saeed reviews Ontario’s multifamily market using CMHC, Rentals.ca, OSFI, and Urbanation signals, arguing the issue isn’t “too much rental housing” but too much new supply priced above what renters can afford. CMHC absorption at completion fell from 89% (May 2025) to 64% (May 2026), with completed unabsorbed inventory up 54% to 12,829 units nationally, while CMHC flags Ontario methodology as under review. Rentals.ca data shows 42% of renters target under $1,500 versus a $2,029 average asking rent, and 70% cite affordability as the top challenge. He discusses OSFI’s stability buffer cut as capacity (not lower rates), rent-control policy risk (including Ontario’s post-2018 exemption), rising GTHA vacancy in post-2000 buildings (5.4%), major long-lag approvals (Vaughan’s 9,950 units), Brad Lamb’s subsidy-dependent pivot to purpose-built rentals, and student housing as a niche with visa-cap demand risk, concluding oversupply risk is concentrated in levered, premium, incentive-dependent new builds while older below-replacement-cost stock is more insulated.
00:00 Absorption Shock Intro
00:57 CMHC Absorption Data
03:00 Renters Affordability Gap
04:54 OSFI Buffer Cut
06:16 Rent Control Policy Risk
08:21 Fitzrovia Lease Up Reality
09:40 Vaughan Mega Approval Lag
11:05 Brad Lamb Subsidy Cliff
13:13 Student Housing Exception
15:11 How Much Is Too Much
18:05 Wrap Up And Disclosures
About Your Hosts:
Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.
Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/about
Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com