▪️Falcon 9 Retiring in 2032
  •Starship is coming.
  •Rocket launch business Low margin business.
  •12% from launches.
  •Majority was from Starlink. $4.3 B out of $7.8B

▪️ Internal Customer
  •Starship will have only two customers. Starlink and xAI.
  •Starlink: 100,000 V3 Communication Satellites.
  •XAI: Millions of AI Inference Satellites.
  •No capacity for others. Apple business model.

▪️ Backlog. Who will fly:
  •2023-2033: 37,000 Satellites.
  •Vulcan (UAL) and New Glenn (Blue Origin). Vulcan with 2 military launches in 6 years and New Glenn rocket exploded on launch pad.
  •Nova Rocket(Stoks Space), Neutron(Rocket Lab), Terran R(Relativity Space), Eclipse Rocket(Firefly/Northrop Grumman)

▪️ Govt Innervation?
  •Will Govt tell SpaceX to not retire Falcon 9?

▪️$2 Trillion IPO
▪️$100 Billion Revenue Run Rate
▪️What is Run Rate?
▪️Bigger than SpaceX IPO ($1.75 Trillion)
▪️Valuation / Revenue = 20x
▪️Compare Anthropic to Reliance Industries
▪️Anthropic Revenue growing 10x per year. $1B -> $10B -> $100 B
▪️Is this sustainable?
▪️Challenges: Chips, Electricity/Power/Permits/Competition.
▪️Zero Sum Market