The Talking Sense Podcast

New News24/SABI polling puts the DA at about 40% in Johannesburg. Frans Cronje makes the case that the DA should refuse to govern the city on those numbers, win Gauteng in 2029 and fix it from a position of strength. James Myburgh asks whether this is the moment to seize.

Also this week: why the diesel price is at a record high while oil sits at $100, Simon Lincoln Reader on Margaret Thatcher and whether Andy Burnham ends Thatcher capitalism, Richard Tren on the US Supreme Court's new term, Frans on the classical liberals and the Black Consciousness Movement, and James Myburgh on Fikile Mbalula's misleading defence of the Expropriation Act. Plus three years on from October 7.

Become a member of The Common Sense for R99 a month and get all the facts and analysis: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribe

Read the articles discussed:
How Do News24/SABI Polls Compare to The Common Sense/SRF Polls?: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/how-do-news24-sabi-polls-compare-to-the-common-sense-srf-polls
New Poll Shows DA on Track to be Biggest in Gauteng but Jo'burg: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/new-poll-shows-da-track-be-biggest-gauteng-jo-burg
This is Why the Diesel Price is So High: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/economics_and_policy/why-diesel-price-so-high
ANC Lies to the US About Expropriation Without Compensation: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/editorials/anc-lies-us-about-expropriation-without-compensation
Three Years After October 7, We Will Not Apologise for Standing: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/editorials/three-years-after-october-7-we-will-not-apologise-standing
October 7 Three Years On: A Pearl Harbour Moment in the Middle East: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/editorials/october-7th-three-years-pearl-harbour-moment-middle-east
Mbuyiseni Ndlozi: South Africans Must Stop Waiting For The State to Save Them: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/listen/conversations-with-gabriel/mbuyiseni-ndlozi-south-africans-must-stop-waiting-for-the-state-to-save-them
Princy Mthombeni Wants to Rewrite the South African Constitution: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/listen/conversations-with-gabriel/princy-mthombeni-wants-to-rewrite-the-south-african-constitution

On the panel: host Gabriel Makin, Frans Cronje, James Myburgh, Simon Lincoln Reader and Richard Tren.

Chapters:
0:00 A Pierneef-inspired AI painting, October 7 and the Green Party
3:51 George Galloway in Cape Town and the Greens' 'Zionism is racism' motion
8:33 Welcome to Talking Sense: why diesel is at a record price
15:11 The new News24/SABI poll and how it compares with ours
18:58 Should Helen Zille govern Johannesburg on 40%?
22:03 Coalition options, ActionSA and the ANC's sabotage strategy
26:15 James Myburgh: is this the moment for the DA to seize?
32:08 Can the DA fix Johannesburg without a real majority?
35:19 Lessons from the DA's last time in Johannesburg
39:57 Has the GNU helped the DA? Black voters and the Zille gap
44:19 Simon Lincoln Reader: what Thatcher capitalism was
48:52 How Thatcher remade Britain: the City, finance and common sense
51:56 Is Andy Burnham the final nail in Thatcher capitalism's coffin?
56:19 Richard Tren: Thatcher, Reagan and the moral case for freedom
1:03:06 Richard Tren: what to watch in the US Supreme Court's new term
1:10:43 Is this a Trump court? Roberts, compromise and free speech
1:12:29 Frans Cronje: the liberals and the Black Consciousness Movement
1:19:23 A third way? Ndlozi, Princy Mthombeni and the two nationalisms
1:23:49 Fikile Mbalula's misleading defence of the Expropriation Act
1:27:23 Who is the ANC's weasel language meant to persuade?

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Thabo Mbeki's 120-page thesis says a counter-revolution planted inside the ANC brought the party down. Frans Cronje explains why its own policies did it, and why growing at 5% a year since 2008 would have lifted more than 10 million South Africans out of poverty.

Also this week: James Myburgh on his National Press Club speech on the history of farm attacks and why the violence was normalised, how the foot-and-mouth crisis was fixed once farmers could buy their own vaccines, Ronald Lamola questioning debt repayments within earshot of Wall Street, Andy Burnham and the UK's bond market problem, and Richard Tren on how US student loans drove up university fees.

Become a member of The Common Sense for R99 a month and get all the facts and analysis: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribe
Watch or listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3BPffxR8ZZLUByFmsRCz7B

Read the articles discussed:
Mbeki Says the ANC was Brought Down by an Orchestrated Counter-Revolution: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/mbeki-says-anc-was-brought-down-orchestrated-counter
Ask Not for Whom the Revolution Bays, It Bays for You: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Editorials/ask-not-whom-revolution-bays-bays-you
If SA Had Grown at Emerging-Market Rates, More Than 10 Million People Would Have Been Lifted Out of Poverty: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/economics_and_policy/if-sa-had-grown-emerging-market-rates-more-than-10-million
Rethinking Empowerment Policy for South Africa's Future: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/editorials/rethinking-empowerment-policy-for-south-africas-future
Expert Explains Origins, History, and Consequences of South Africa's Farm Attack Crisis to America: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/expert-explains-origins-history-consequences-south-africa-s
Just How Dangerous Is a South African Farm? We Ran the Numbers: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/just-how-dangerous-south-african-farm-we-ran-numbers
Special Report: South Africa's Predatory Crime Problem: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/special-report-south-africas-predatory-crime-problem
Blow for Steenhuisen as Free State Agriculture Wins for Farmers: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/blow-steenhuisen-as-free-state-agriculture-wins-farmers
Simon Lincoln-Reader, Lamola's Ill-Considered Jaunt to the US: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/editorials/lamola-s-ill-considered-jaunt-us
Investors Think South Africa Is Safe Again. November's Elections Could Prove Them Wrong (Bheki Mahlobo on the bond market): https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/videos/investors-think-south-africa-is-

Markets have priced South African risk down to almost zero on the belief that the GNU holds after November. Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo explain why the foundations are weaker than in 2024, what would reprice SA's bonds overnight, and how that reaches your bond and credit card rates.

Also this week: Marius Roodt's research showing the DA is bigger than the ANC in the eight metros, more than 100 hung councils ahead, Cape Town's ConCourt win against racial procurement rules, Simon Lincoln-Reader on Dario Amodei's push to regulate AI, Ronald Lamola with Bernie Sanders in New York, and why Germany's hard left and hard right both won.

Become a member of The Common Sense for R99 a month and get all the facts and analysis: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribe

Read the articles discussed:
SA's Cities Have Moved Away from the ANC: Is the Country Next? https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/sa-s-cities-have-moved-away-anc-country-next
Court Blocks Government's Most Prescriptive Racial Procurement Regime Yet: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/court-blocks-government-s-most-prescriptive-racial
Hard Right, Hard Left Each Win State Election in Germany: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Global/hard-right-hard-left-each-win-state-election-germany
The enclave guide, What Families Must Do to Thrive in South Africa's Enclave Future: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/special-report-a-guide-to-what-families-must-do-to-thrive-in-south-africa-s-enclave-future
Simon Lincoln-Reader, Are Calls for AI Regulations Just an Excuse for More Government Control? https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/columns/are-calls-ai-regulations-just-excuse-more-government-control

On the panel: host Gabriel Makin, Frans Cronje and Simon Lincoln-Reader, with guests Bheki Mahlobo, The Common Sense's economics editor, and Marius Roodt, its deputy editor.

Chapters:
0:00 Why markets are so optimistic about the GNU
9:28 Welcome to Talking Sense
11:22 Is the GNU still what it was in 2024?
17:26 Overhang and the Constitutional Court wildcard
22:53 Markets have priced South African risk at zero
25:48 Why bond yields reach your bond and credit card
28:21 Why the DA may be right to leave the GNU
35:47 Cape Town's ConCourt win on racial procurement
42:09 If the 8 metros were a country, the DA would win
45:11 Why the ANC is losing rural South Africa too
52:55 More than 100 hung councils in November
55:09 Why the markets are complacent this time
58:03 Dario Amodei, AI regulation and the effective altruists
1:17:25 Lamola, Bernie Sanders and the national interest
1:27:39 Germany: the AfD and Die Linke both win
1:32:19 How bad policy compounds, from Berlin to MK
1:36:41 Thanks and goodbye

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Become a member of The Common Sense for R99 a month: https://thecommonsense.co.za/subscribe

This week the Talking Sense panel talks about the Springboks' Baltimore experiment and the bid to buy the Boks, the United States' first sanctions against South Africa, the serial killer in Ekurhuleni, Reform's £72 million weekend in UK party donations, two good things out of Britain, Somaliland's pitch to the West, The Common Sense's special report on the enclave future, and why the DA is a middle-class party.

Chapters:
0:00 Bongani Baloyi, MK and the ANC's electoral court defeat
5:58 Intro
7:20 The Springboks for sale: Baltimore and the diaspora
17:52 The United States sanctions South Africa
25:52 The serial killer in Ekurhuleni
37:25 Reform's £72 million weekend: UK party donations
55:26 Two good things out of Britain: Jackdaw and assisted dying
1:02:52 Somaliland's pitch to the West
1:12:41 The Common Sense's enclave special report
1:25:44 The DA is a middle-class party
1:28:20 Outro

Read the pieces discussed in this episode:
The Diary — A Summer Night's Eve in Baltimore: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Columns/common-sense-s-diary-summer-night-s-eve-baltimore
US Announces Sanctions Against South Africa Over Racial Policies: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/us-announces-sanctions-against-south-africa-over-racial
Severe Blow to ANC in Six Municipalities Ahead of the Local Government Elections: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/severe-blow-anc-six-municipalities-ahead-local-government
SPECIAL REPORT — What Families Must Do to Thrive in South Africa's Enclave Future: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/special-report-a-guide-to-what-families-must-do-to-thrive-in-south-africa-s-enclave-future
Members video — How To Thrive In South Africa's Enclave Future: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/videos/how-to-thrive-in-south-africa-s-enclave-future-members-special

Watch Gabriel's interview with Bongani Baloyi of MK: https://youtu.be/bnOBffnfNXk

Become a member of The Common Sense for just R99 a month: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribe

This week on Talking Sense: the election maths problem that could throw November's local government results into chaos — how a party that loses the vote can still end up running the council — plus the fragmenting Black vote in our latest poll, the Falklands back in the news (and what Milei is playing at), the Chagos giveaway, the American midterms and Trump's own goals, the strange return of Wouter Basson, and a rare piece of good news — the Supreme Court of Appeal clears the way for the Western Cape's school reforms.

Timestamps:
0:00 Pre-show: drinks and banter
1:50 The overhang problem: November's election maths
10:52 Welcome and this week's menu
12:10 The Black vote fragments
17:50 How not to read a poll: Ipsos and the SRF
24:48 The Falklands: a brief history
30:18 Why now? Milei, oil and a weakened Britain
40:27 The South African angle: Simon's Town and the South Atlantic
43:48 The Chagos giveaway
57:42 The American midterms
1:09:16 Trump's own goals
1:15:09 The strange return of Wouter Basson
1:18:48 Basson, Libya and the ANC
1:31:02 Good news: the courts clear the Western Cape's school reforms
1:36:24 Connect the dots: who funds the obstruction?
1:43:52 Wrap-up

Read the articles discussed in this episode:
— Black Vote Fragments: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/black-vote-fragments
— How Equal Education and SADTU Work to Stunt Poor Black Children: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Editorials/how-equal-education-sadtu-work-stunt-poor-black-children
— Estimating What South Africa Would Gain from Exploiting Its Oil and Gas Reserves: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Economics%20&%20Policy/estimating-what-south-africa-would-gain-exploiting-its-oil

On the panel this week: Gabriel Makin (host, London), Frans Cronje, Richard Tren (Washington, D.C.), James Myburgh (Bremen) and Simon Lincoln-Reader (London).

The Common Sense is South Africa's home of independent news and analysis: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za

Richard Tren reports from Buenos Aires on Milei's revolution, Frans Cronje explains what the US bond yield spike actually means, James Myburgh unpacks South Africa's mysterious murder decline and the party funding declarations, and Simon Lincoln-Reader tells the story of how Nike went woke and lost its way. Plus: the ANC misses its own candidate registration deadline, the impossible economics of being a domestic worker, and Helen Zille's water project.

Articles referenced in this episode:
Just How Dangerous Is a South African Farm? We Ran the Numbers: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/just-how-dangerous-south-african-farm-we-ran-numbers
What's Driving the US Yield Spike — And the Bessent-Warsh Standoff Behind It: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/economics_and_policy/what-s-driving-us-yield-spike-bessent-warsh-standoff-behind
The Impossible Economics of Domestic Work: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/economics_and_policy/impossible-economics-domestic-work
Richard Tren — President Trump's Misread of South Africa (RealClearWorld): https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2026/09/02/president_trumps_misread_of_south_africa_1203862.html

Become a member of The Common Sense and get all the facts and analysis for R99 a month: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribe
Sign up for the newsletter: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/newsletters

Talking Sense is The Common Sense's weekly panel: host Gabriel Makin with James Myburgh, Frans Cronje, Richard Tren and Simon Lincoln-Reader.

Chapters
0:00 Before the show: Trump's misread of South Africa and the farm murders data
9:31 Show open and this week's rundown
10:57 Richard in Argentina: Milei's revolution up close
30:14 What is a bond? Frans explains from first principles
39:48 Why are US yields spiking? The Common Sense breakdown
1:04:51 The UK's gilt problem: 5.89% and climbing
1:09:14 Nike goes woke: Shoe Dog, share prices and shutting up
1:24:18 South Africa's crime stats: the mysterious murder decline
1:36:52 The ANC misses its own candidate registration deadline
1:43:08 Party funding declarations: who funds whom, and who declares nothing
1:50:06 The impossible economics of domestic work
1:56:32 Helen Zille's water project and the battle for Johannesburg
2:03:02 Wrap-up: a record-length episode

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In the latest episode of Talking Sense, with James Myburgh, Richard Tren, and Simon Lincoln-Reader, and hosted by Gabriel Makin, the panel looks at new SRF polling showing that South Africans support closer alignment with the United States. Majorities back exemptions for American companies from BEE, guarantees against expropriation, and protecting America’s security interests. Black voters were also more supportive than white voters on BEE exemptions, with 60% backing the policy compared with 55% of white voters.The panel also also looks at the ANC's two eras, the new Water Bill, the Constitutional Court's Shell ruling, primaries in the United States, and the Jason Arday affair. Become a member and support The Common Sense — Common Sense Plus is 99 rand a month and gets you the full archive of articles, explainers and the data behind South Africa's most important trends: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribeSite: https://www.thecommonsense.co.zaPanel: Gabriel Makin (host), James Myburgh, Richard Tren, Simon Lincoln-ReaderChapters:0:00 Pre-show: the AI wunderkind vs Wall Street4:25 March on March and the AfriForum model8:32 US fundraising spam and ActBlue12:03 Show start: this week's stories13:14 Did the ANC ever really deliver? (subscriber question)22:35 The new Water Bill25:59 The Shell ruling, Eskom and net zero36:29 The United States' primaries: Florida50:01 Jason Arday and the DEI reckoning1:06:14 New poll: South Africans on American companies1:11:52 Closing thoughtsIf this was worth your time, like the video and subscribe for a new episode every week.

Black South Africans are more willing than white South Africans to move to the US as refugees, according to new polling discussed in this week’s episode of Talking Sense. The panel discusses South Africa's "useless men" problem and why young men are abandoning women to leave them to raise children alone. The panel also examines Duduzane Zuma’s appearance at the BizNews conference, where he told Alec Hogg that the MKP is real and here to stay, with Frans Cronje arguing that South Africans should take the party seriously. Simon Lincoln Reader looks at the Church of England’s £100 million slavery reparations pledge and asks what happens when the church stops being a church. The panel delves into the deep splits within the Church of England which has seen its Global South leadership break away, stressing the Bible should be at the centre of its work, whereas its Western community stresses socialist dogma and ideology. Bheki Mahlobo discusses US inflation and why young Americans feel alienated from their country’s economy, while James Myburgh analyses the DA’s local government manifesto and the fight inside UCT’s council. The panel also looks at questionable US climate data.Gabriel Makin hosts. Panel: Frans Cronje, James Myburgh, Simon Lincoln Reader, Bheki Mahlobo.Common Sense Plus is R99 a month.https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribeChapters0:00 Female-headed households3:03 Richard Tren, Yorktown, Kings Mountain6:57 Clacton and Count Binface8:36 Fake polls12:29 Show open14:08 Duduzane Zuma on BizNews, MK and the ANC24:36 Church of England reparations45:22 US inflation, jobs, cost of living1:00:24 DA local government manifesto1:14:11 UCT council and the vice-chancellor1:19:13 America’s “hottest month”1:28:34 Refugee poll1:31:21 Closethecommonsense.co.za

Read the full analysis and more data-driven insights: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Become a Common Sense Member for R99/pm https://bit.ly/3QJWRIdThis week the panel discusses the Social Research Foundation and The Common Sense new national and Johannesburg, Durban and Pretoria polling. The ANC sits at 34% nationally and under 20% in Johannesburg. Frans Cronje explains why Phala Phala and the immigration campaigns have become a vice around the ANC, why MK now commands two thirds of the ANC's support among black voters, and what a party polling below 50% in every one of its historical constituencies means for November.Also on the show: the reinstatement of Tshwane city manager Johan Mettler after Solidarity and the DA went to court; Willie Aucamp's approach to the foot-and-mouth crisis and the return of Dawie Oudendaal and Theo de Jager to the industry coordinating council; News24's partial climbdown on IDAC and the still-unanswered question of who exposed the Pretoria safe house; the death of Rod Liddle; and Abdul El-Sayed's razor-thin victory in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary.

Read the full analysis and more data-driven insights: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Become a Common Sense Member for R99/pm https://bit.ly/3QJWRIdSouth Africa's new anti-corruption body, IDAC, was supposed to clean up the state. Instead it appears to have run interference against the people investigating one of the country's most murderous criminal syndicates.The panel works through IDAC's capture, and the media complicity around that, and what the Madlanga Commission has exposed about it all, and then traces the same playbook back to the SARS "rogue unit" operation against Johann van Loggerenberg in 2014.Also this week: the SANDF is training a special warfare unit to fight deep underground in an effort to win back the mineral resources the state expropriated 20 years ago and then lost control of. Richard Tren goes through Anthony Fauci's newly released diaries and what Fauci knew about the origins of COVID - whilst the panel suggests what those origins most likely were. Simon Lincoln Reader takes apart The Economist's interview with Elon Musk. And Frans Cronje explains why South Africa already has the electricity it needs to grow at 4 percent.0:00 — Opening banter and setup9:14 — Show intro and guest lineup10:11 — IDAC capture and the Madlanga Commission24:21 — Media complicity and the SARS rogue unit playbook30:04 — South Africa’s underground military unit and illicit mining43:03 — Dr. Fauci’s diaries and the COVID response61:15 — Elon Musk’s Economist interview76:33 — South Africa’s energy needs and growth potential94:45 — Closing remarks