The Thread

Where's the Beef?

The Thread · Issue #13 · October 5, 2026

Ground beef hit ten dollars a pound at my grocery store, and I went looking for someone to blame. What I found was a cattle herd at its smallest since 1951, money changing hands from ranchers to packers to feedlots, and a ninety-day policy clock running inside a three-year biological one. It's also a lesson in why household inflation arrives in spikes, not averages.

Chapters

0:00 — Ten-dollar ground beef

1:20 — The usual suspects

2:20 — Nobody holds the money for long

4:30 — Fewer cattle, same appetite

5:35 — Why more cattle means less beef, for now

7:20 — A ninety-day fix for a three-year problem

9:00 — This cycle will turn

9:45 — What this means for you

13:35 — Monday dinner

Sources and further reading

Screwworm status in the US (USDA APHIS):

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/stop-screwworm/current-status

Rancher margins and packer losses (Drovers):

https://www.drovers.com/news/industry/unpacking-beef-report-clarifies-cattle-market-realities-packer-challenges-trade-ten

Tyson's Lexington, Nebraska plant closure (University of Nebraska–Lincoln):

https://cap.unl.edu/news/economic-impacts-tyson-beef-plant-closure-lexington-nebraska/

Tyson beef network restructuring (Tyson Foods):

https://www.tysonfoods.com/news/news-releases/2026/8/tyson-foods-announces-network-restructuring-beef-business-strengthen-long

The feedlot squeeze (Oklahoma Farm Report, Dr. Derrell Peel):

https://www.oklahomafarmreport.com/2026/09/21/cow-calf-corner-dr-derrell-peel-the-feedlot-house-of-cards-is-collapsing/

Retail beef margins widen (RFD-TV):

https://www.rfdtv.com/retail-beef-margins-widen-as-consumer-prices-climb

Imports haven't lowered grocery prices; cattle price drop (American Farm Bureau):

https://www.fb.org/intel/markets/increased-beef-imports-have-not-lowered-prices-for-consumers

DOJ requests grocer pricing data (Transport Topics):

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/doj-beef-antitrust-grocers

US cattle herd at smallest since 1951 (University of Florida IFAS):

https://rcrec-ona.ifas.ufl.edu/media/rcrec-onaifasufledu/pdf/2026_01_AR.pdf

Consumer demand holding beef prices up (Drovers):

https://www.drovers.com/news/beyond-fewer-cows-how-consumer-demand-holding-beef-prices

Import proclamation and production outlook (White House):

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/08/further-ensuring-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer/

Ground beef average retail price (FRED, St. Louis Fed):

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112

July cattle report and herd stabilization (American Farm Bureau):

https://www.fb.org/intel/markets/july-cattle-report-signals-stabilizing-cattle-herd

Executive order on meat processing (NewsNation):

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/trumps-executive-order-meat-processing/

The last cattle cycle's price decline (Purdue):

https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home/?p=12550

Consumer Price Index by category (Bureau of Labor Statistics):

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t07.htm

The Strait of Hormuz and oil supply (European Central Bank):

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2026/html/ecb.blog20260727~1212bdb8f9.en.html

Short-Term Energy Outlook (US Energy Information Administration):

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

The bolognese (New York Times Cooking):

https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1026551-spicy-creamy-weeknight-bolognese

Read the full piece

https://matthewgdavis.substack.com [replace with the final issue URL at publish]

About The Thread

The Thread is a biweekly essay from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners — following the connections that shape your financial life. It starts with what people are actually feeling about money and traces it back to the economy: a calmer way to stay informed. Read and subscribe at matthewgdavis.substack.com.

Who Planted My Shade

The Thread · September 21, 2026

My grandfather died earlier this month. This issue is about him and my grandmother — two people from a mountain in Arkansas who built something, lived like they hadn't, and gave most of it away. It's also about what a financial backstop actually buys you, which turns out not to be the ability to take risk, but the ability to survive losing.

SOURCES AND FURTHER READING

The earlier issue this piece follows from:

https://matthewgdavis.substack.com/p/the-shade-we-sit-under

Primary source for the biographical material: A Time to Remember, the autobiography of V. Glenn McCoy, revised 2012. Unpublished family document.

READ THE FULL PIECE

https://matthewgdavis.substack.com

ABOUT THE THREAD

The Thread is a biweekly essay following the connections that shape your financial life. Written by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, a fee-only RIA in Westlake Village, California. Each issue starts with something people are actually feeling about money and traces it back to the economy — so you understand not just what's happening to you, but why.

The Shade We Sit Under

The Thread · August 24, 2026

My grandfather kept certificates of deposit spread across bank after bank, every account under the federal insurance limit, tracked by hand on a spreadsheet for years. He was using a system built in 1933 by people who were mostly gone before anyone stopped noticing it worked. This episode is about protections that disappear when they succeed — deposit insurance, acid rain, lead, the ozone layer — why the costs are always visible and the benefits never are, and what happens to savers who find the edge of the perimeter the hard way.

CHAPTERS

0:00 — The spreadsheet

2:10 — Why it existed: 1933

4:35 — March 2023 and the edge of the floor

6:30 — Yotta, Synapse, and the apps in your pocket

8:25 — Acid rain, lead, and the ozone layer

9:55 — Who gets a bill

10:50 — The objection worth taking seriously

11:45 — Planting for a season you won't see

SOURCES AND FURTHER READING

FDIC, A Brief History of Deposit Insurance in the United States

https://www.fdic.gov/resources/publications/brief-history-of-deposit-insurance/book/brief-history-deposit-insurance-1.pdf

FDIC, The 1930s

https://www.fdic.gov/history/1930-1939

Yale Journal of Financial Crises, on the 1933 bank holiday and Treasury licensing

https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1654&context=journal-of-financial-crises

NBER working paper, on bank reopenings after the holiday

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31088/revisions/w31088.rev1.pdf

Journal of Financial Economics, on deposits returning before insurance existed

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X24001910

Federal Reserve Office of Inspector General, material loss review of Silicon Valley Bank

https://oig.federalreserve.gov/reports/board-material-loss-review-silicon-valley-bank-sep2023.pdf

CNBC, on Michael Barr's testimony about the withdrawal attempts

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/svb-customers-tried-to-pull-nearly-all-deposits-in-two-days-barr-says.html

Fortune, on Fed economists comparing SVB to 1930s rural banks

https://fortune.com/2023/05/15/svb-signature-collapse-1930s-rural-banks-failures-fed-economists/

American Banker, on California's consent order against Yotta

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/california-fines-yotta-1m-for-deceiving-savers

NBC News, on the bankruptcy trustee's findings

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/synapse-bankruptcy-trustee-says-85-million-customer-savings-missing-fi-rcna156108

Banking Dive, on the CFPB action and the victim compensation fund

https://www.bankingdive.com/news/cfpb-sues-synapse-plans-use-victims-fund-pay-end-users/758776/

Banking Dive, on the $1 million California fine

https://www.bankingdive.com/news/california-fines-yotta-1-million-customers-still-out-millions/820764/

CBS News, on payment apps and deposit insurance

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/paypal-cash-app-venmo-payment-apps-deposit-insurance-cfpb/

EPA, Acid Rain Program results

https://epa.gov/acidrain/acid-rain-program-results

EPA, power sector emissions reductions progress report

https://www.epa.gov/power-sector/progress-report-emissions-reductions

CDC, MMWR on blood lead levels in American children

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043a4.htm

World Meteorological Organization, on ozone layer recovery

https://wmo.int/media/news/small-and-short-lived-2025-ozone-hole-confirms-long-term-recovery-trend

READ THE FULL PIECE

https://matthewgdavis.substack.com

ABOUT THE THREAD

The Thread is a biweekly essay by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, a fee-only registered investment adviser in Westlake Village, California. Each issue starts with something people are actually feeling about money and traces it back to the economy — so you understand not just what's happening to you, but why. Following the connections that shape your financial life.

The Thread · Issue #10 · August 10, 2026

The housing market didn't just get expensive — it stopped moving. This issue traces why: a building shortage that never recovered, a rate-lock freeze that's uniquely American, and a downsizing math that keeps owners in place while a whole generation waits outside. The result locks some people in and shuts others out, and the only force that reliably loosens it is building.

Chapters

0:00 — A studio behind a side gate

2:15 — A shortage, then a traffic jam

3:10 — The correction that never came

5:15 — Why the thirty-year mortgage is uniquely American

7:20 — Downsizing, from my side of the desk

9:40 — The traffic jam: how the moving chain froze

11:20 — The homes that were never built

12:40 — Who this lands on — and what to actually do

Sources and further reading

Where the thirty-year fixed sits now (Freddie Mac PMMS):

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

Institutional investors as a minor factor in prices (Freddie Mac research):

https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20220609-what-drove-home-price-growth-and-can-it-continue

Institutional investors as a small share of the market (Urban Institute):

https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/will-regulating-large-institutional-investors-actually-make-housing-more-affordable

New limits on the largest investors (the Road to Housing Act, via CNBC):

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/11/21st-century-road-to-housing-act-homebuyers-sellers.html

The mortgage rate lock-in effect, measured (Federal Housing Finance Agency):

https://www.fhfa.gov/research/papers/wp2403

Rate lock as ~40% of the price gap (Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies):

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research-areas/working-papers/mortgage-rate-lock-and-house-prices

History of the FHA and the long-term mortgage (HUD):

https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/fhahistory

Homeownership rate, historical series (US Census Bureau):

https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html

The thirty-year mortgage and ownership (Ed Pinto, American Enterprise Institute):

https://www.aei.org/housing-center/housing-finance/housing-finance-fact-or-fiction-fha-pioneered-the-30-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-during-the-great-depression/

The capital-gains home-sale exclusion (IRS):

https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc701

Property-tax transfer for homeowners over 55 (California Proposition 19):

https://www.boe.ca.gov/prop19/

Moving chains research (Evan Mast, Journal of Urban Economics):

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119021000656

The supply side of the housing challenge (St. Louis Fed):

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/supply-side-of-us-housing-challenge

Young adults living with parents, 2000–2017 (Urban Institute):

https://www.urban.org/research/publication/young-adults-living-parents-basements

Housing costs and young adults, by income and metro (Urban Institute):

https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/high-housing-costs-are-keeping-more-young-adults-their-parents-homes

About The Thread

The Thread is a biweekly essay from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners — following the connections that shape your financial life. It starts with what people are actually feeling about money and traces it back to the economy: a calmer way to stay informed. Read and subscribe at matthewgdavis.substack.com.

Will It Still Be There?

The Thread · Issue #9 · July 27, 2026

The retirement trust fund is projected to run short in 2032 — and the honest translation of "runs out" isn't "gone." This issue traces what the headline gets right, what it gets wrong, and why a problem this well documented still hasn't been fixed. The answer has almost nothing to do with the math.

Chapters

0:00 — Will it still be there? The question every client asks

1:30 — What Social Security is, and why we built it

3:15 — Why it's at risk: the demographics underneath

4:45 — What 2032 actually means

7:00 — Why a 22% cut hits deeper than a percentage

8:45 — Can they actually do this? Flemming v. Nestor and the promise

10:15 — It can be fixed — and it has been before

12:45 — The common thread: attention, not fear

Sources and further reading

Elderly poverty, 1959 (NBER):

https://www.nber.org/bah/2004number2/social-security-and-elderly-poverty

Report of the Committee on Economic Security to Roosevelt, 1935 (SSA History):

https://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/ces/ces5.html

Poverty without Social Security, official measure (Census Bureau, via the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service):

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45791

Worker-to-retiree ratio, 2026 Trustees context (J.P. Morgan Asset Management):

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/retirement-insights/hot-topic-social-security-2026-trustee-report-context-clarity-path-ahead/

Life expectancy at 65, historical (SSA History):

https://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html

2032 depletion, Trustees summary (SSA):

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/

Combined-fund date, 2034 (SSA press release):

https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/press/releases/2026-06-09.html

Projected reductions (Congressional Budget Office):

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62271

Average monthly cut near $500 (CRFB, via Fortune):

https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/social-security-24-percent-cut-2032-crfb-scott-bessent-back-door/

Your earnings record (SSA my Account):

https://www.ssa.gov/myaccount/

Flemming v. Nestor, 1960 (SSA History):

https://www.ssa.gov/history/nestor.html

The taxable-wage cap (CNBC):

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/million-dollar-earners-social-security-2026.html

Read the full piece

https://matthewgdavis.substack.com [replace with the final issue URL at publish]

About The Thread

The Thread is a biweekly essay from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners — following the connections that shape your financial life. It starts with what people are actually feeling about money and traces it back to the economy: a calmer way to stay informed. Read and subscribe at matthewgdavis.substack.com.

Why Cheap Energy Can’t Reach Us Yet

The Thread · Issue #8 · July 13, 2026

You keep hearing energy is getting cheaper, but your bill only climbs. Both are true — and the gap between them is the whole story. This issue takes an electric bill apart: why the cost of making power has collapsed to the cheapest in history, why that’s the one part of your bill behaving, and why the real climb is in the wires and the fire. It ends where the hope is — cheap local power, batteries, and what all of it lets us do next.

Chapters

Estimated — will refine after audio QC.

0:00 — Open

0:30 — Ray, and the bill that keeps climbing

2:00 — The cheapest power we’ve ever made

4:30 — So cheap it goes negative (and gets spilled)

6:30 — The fear that quietly faded

8:00 — Two things sharing one bill: generation vs. delivery

10:30 — Wires and fire

13:00 — Both things are true

14:30 — What cheap power lets us do next: remote grids, batteries, Australia

17:30 — So what do you do with this

Sources and further reading

Lazard, cost of building new power by source (solar/wind cheapest for the tenth year; new gas at a ten-year high):

https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/levelized-cost-of-energyplus-lcoeplus/

Our World in Data, long-run collapse in solar panel prices:

https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth

Negative wholesale prices in Southern California (~1,180 hours in 2024):

https://resurety.com/article-negative-prices-in-caiso/

EIA, California curtailed 3.4 million MWh of wind and solar in 2024 (93% solar), and the solutions:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65364

Haas / Energy Institute at UC Berkeley, generation is a minority of a California bill:

https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/report-reveals-inequity-in-electricity-pricing-calls-for-rate-reform-to-help-fight-climate-change/

Severin Borenstein on why California rates are high (delivery, not generation):

https://www.energysage.com/news/ca-electricity-rates-increase-96-percent-2014-to-2024/

EIA, California residential electricity price (~35 cents/kWh):

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/

California rates up ~40% since 2019, steepest in the nation (Energy Institute at UC Berkeley):

https://www.edhat.com/california/news/california-sees-nations-largest-electricity-rate-increase-up-39-since-2019/

Wildfire as a growing share of a California utility’s costs:

https://www.solarwithwatts.com/eds-blog/why-is-electricity-so-expensive-in-california

SCE rate advisory (wildfire self-insurance):

https://www.sce.com/save-money/rates-financing/sce-rate-advisory

IEA, rising cable and transformer prices:

https://www.iea.org/news/rising-component-prices-and-supply-chain-pressures-are-hindering-the-development-of-transmission-grid-infrastructure

PowerMag, transformer demand and shortages:

https://www.powermag.com/transformers-in-2026-shortage-scramble-or-self-inflicted-crisis/

Yale E360, PG&E remote grids replacing fire-prone lines:

https://e360.yale.edu/digest/microgrids-power-lines

T&D World, the Briceburg remote grid through a 2021 wildfire:

https://www.tdworld.com/distributed-energy-resources/article/21278234/pge-remote-grid-delivers-wildfire-safety-and-ratepayer-savings

CAISO, California battery storage growth (2020–2025):

https://www.caiso.com/documents/2024-special-report-on-battery-storage-may-29-2025.pdf

Clean Energy Council, Australia rooftop solar at scale:

https://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news-resources/rooftop-solar-and-storage-report-july-to-dec-2025

Read the full piece

The written edition, with every source linked inline: https://matthewgdavis.substack.com/

About The Thread

The Thread is a biweekly essay by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, following the connections between the economic forces and the everyday financial decisions they shape. One thread per issue, pulled slowly, from what you’re feeling about money back to the systems underneath it.

Compliance disclosure

The full compliance disclosure for this episode is available with the text of this post, at matthewgdavis.substack.com. This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult with your financial advisor before making investment decisions.

The Price of OptimismThe Thread · Issue #7 · June 29, 2026

A rocket company went public, the stock soared and then gave much of it back — and underneath the noise sits a plainer question: when you buy a stock like this, what are you actually buying? This issue traces the gap between a company's fundamentals and its story, and why you may already own a piece of the most-talked-about stock on the market without ever choosing to.

Chapters0:00 — The couple's question1:25 — What you're actually buying: fundamentals vs. story3:30 — SpaceX: five companies in one ticker4:50 — The valuation gap: $2T vs. $780B6:45 — A great product isn't a good investment8:00 — What moves the price without moving the business9:45 — Why you may already own it11:20 — What to do with this12:45 — Close

Sources and further reading

SpaceX first-week surge, float, and the Nasdaq "human spirit" quote — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/spacex-ipo-spcx-live-updates.html

Current valuation — Investing.comhttps://www.investing.com/equities/spacex

Morningstar's $780B fair-value estimate — NPRhttps://www.npr.org/2026/06/12/nx-s1-5855004/stock-ai-spacex-ipo-elon-musk

2025 revenue and net loss — Morningstarhttps://www.morningstar.com/stocks/6-charts-spacexs-s-1-financials

AI venture renting compute to rivals — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/google-to-pay-spacex-920-million-a-month-for-xai-compute-capacity.html$25 billion debt sale — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/23/spacex-debt-bond-market-ipo.html

How index funds are adding SpaceX — Morningstarhttps://www.morningstar.com/funds/spacex-ipo-how-index-funds-are-adapting

S&P 500 holding out — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/spacex-blocked-from-early-us-benchmark-index-entry-as-sp-reaffirms-existing-rules.html

Rivian owner satisfaction — Consumer Reportshttps://www.consumerreports.org/cars/rivian/r1t/2025/owner-satisfaction/

Read the full piece: https://matthewgdavis.substack.com

About The Thread

The Thread is a biweekly essay and audio edition from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It starts with what people are actually feeling about money and life, and traces it back to the economy — so you understand not just what's happening to you, but why.

What Did We Borrow For?

The Thread · Special Report · June 22, 2026

Episode summary

A client in his early sixties asked me a question I couldn't put down: we've borrowed tens of trillions of dollars — where did it all go, and who actually pays it off? This special report pulls that thread. Almost all of it went to making the present easier — cushioning two crises, cutting taxes, fighting wars — and very little to building the future. Now the interest bill has crossed a trillion dollars a year, and the bill is coming due just as the generation meant to pay it grows smaller. The number isn't destiny. It's the sum of choices we can still see clearly enough to act on.

Chapters

Estimated — will refine after audio QC

0:00 — Cold open

0:25 — Ron's question: where did it all go?

1:14 — Putting the number in proportion

2:18 — Where it all went

3:45 — The cost of carrying it

5:14 — Why this time is different

6:26 — Ron's date: Social Security's math

8:09 — Not a cliff, a decision

9:41 — What I'd actually tell Ron

10:54 — The common thread

12:11 — Where to read the full piece

Sources and further reading

The number and the proportion

The 2001 surplus and CBO's projection to pay off the debt, plus the breakdown of how the debt rose since — including the share passed with bipartisan votes — Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

https://www.crfb.org/papers/riches-rags-causes-fiscal-deterioration-2001

The current national debt (above $39 trillion) — U.S. Treasury, Fiscal Data

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/

Debt as a share of GDP, and the interest-cost projections — Congressional Budget Office

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61882

The cost of carrying it

The federal interest bill crossing $1 trillion a year (and how it compares with defense and Medicaid) — American Action Forum, on CBO's February 2026 outlook

https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/highlights-of-cbos-february-2026-budget-and-economic-outlook/

The 30-year Treasury auction clearing 5% — CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/treasurys-yields-inflation-traders-fed-interest-rates.html

Why this time is different

Defense spending after World War II, and why today's fiscal outlook is harder — Peter G. Peterson Foundation

https://www.pgpf.org/article/why-is-the-us-fiscal-outlook-more-daunting-now-than-after-world-war-ii/

The ratio of workers to Social Security beneficiaries — Peter G. Peterson Foundation

https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-ratio-of-workers-to-social-security-beneficiaries-is-at-a-low-and-projected-to-decline-further/

The worker-to-beneficiary ratio falling below 2.5 — Bipartisan Policy Center

https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/immigration-social-security-solvency/

Social Security's trust-fund projections — Social Security Administration, Trustees Summary

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/

Read the full piece

The written edition includes every source linked inline and all four charts embedded directly.

https://matthewgdavis.substack.com

Related — why the cost of an ordinary life keeps climbing (Issue #4):

https://matthewgdavis.substack.com/p/the-thread-issue-4-may-18-2026

About The Thread

The Thread is a biweekly newsletter and podcast from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It follows the connections between the economic and political stories shaping your financial life — for readers and listeners who want a calm, data-driven lens on a noisy news cycle.

Compliance disclosure

Matthew Davis is the co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, LLC (”Sherwood”). Sherwood is a registered investment adviser. This platform and this briefing are solely for informational purposes and do not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. The information contained herein is not intended to convey or constitute legal or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Comments by viewers or third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment outcomes and do not ensure that a viewer will experience a higher level of performance or results. Public comments posted on this site are not selected, amended, deleted, or sorted in any way. If applicable, certain editing of personal identifiable information and misinformation may be deleted. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain Sherwood personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. Sherwood believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated. This briefing may discuss and display charts, graphs, and formulas; these are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. Such charts, graphs, and formulas offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The Thread — Issue #6 | June 15, 2026

When Coverage Doesn't Reach Care

Episode summary

Coverage in America is near record highs, and we spend more on healthcare than any nation on earth — yet an insurance card keeps turning out to be a smaller promise than people expect. This issue follows that gap across three fronts: where Medicare stops at the nursing-home door, why more of the best providers are leaving insurance behind, and how "ghost networks" fill plan directories with doctors who never answer. What your card says you have, and what you can actually get, have quietly drifted apart — and the distance has real consequences for your money.

Chapters

Estimated — will refine after audio QC

0:00 — Cold open

0:21 — The promise, and where it stops

2:55 — Coverage at record highs, care out of reach

4:04 — The best providers are opting out

6:31 — Why providers are leaving

7:44 — When the network is a ghost

9:17 — What this means for you

11:21 — The common thread

12:42 — Where to read the full piece

Sources and further reading

Medicare and nursing-home costs

Medicare's skilled nursing facility coverage and the 20-to-100-day rules — Medicare.gov

https://www.medicare.gov/coverage/skilled-nursing-facility-care

National median cost of nursing-home care — CareScout (Genworth) Cost of Care

https://www.carescout.com/cost-of-care

Coverage and national health spending

ACA marketplace premiums after the enhanced subsidies expired — CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/how-much-aca-premiums-spiked-after-enhanced-subsidies-ended.html

National health expenditures (5.3 trillion dollars; about 15,474 dollars per person; 18% of GDP) — CMS

https://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-and-reports/national-health-expenditure-data/historical

How U.S. health spending compares with other wealthy countries — Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-spending-u-s-compare-countries/

Providers leaving insurance

Psychotherapist and psychiatrist insurance acceptance in Georgia — Medical Care (2025)

https://journals.lww.com/lww-medicalcare/fulltext/2025/02000/factors_associated_with_psychotherapist_and.6.aspx

Psychiatrists' acceptance of private insurance — Bishop et al., JAMA Psychiatry (2014)

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3967759

Growth of concierge and direct primary care — Johns Hopkins / Health Affairs

https://hub.jhu.edu/2025/12/18/concierge-medicine-rising-hopkins-research/

MRI prices: hospital vs. freestanding imaging center — GoodRx

https://www.goodrx.com/health-topic/diagnostics/how-much-does-an-mri-cost

Ghost networks

Senate Finance Committee "secret shopper" study of Medicare Advantage mental-health directories

https://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/wyden-calls-for-action-to-get-rid-of-ghost-networks-releases-secret-shopper-study

New York investigation finding most listed providers unreachable or not in-network — ProPublica

https://www.propublica.org/article/ghost-networks-health-insurance-regulators

Free help with your own coverage

State Health Insurance Assistance Program — free, one-on-one Medicare counseling

https://www.shiphelp.org/

Medicare — official site

https://www.medicare.gov/

KFF — plain-language health policy explainers

https://www.kff.org/

HealthCare.gov — the official insurance marketplace

https://www.healthcare.gov/

Read the full piece

The written edition includes every source linked inline and the charts embedded directly.

https://matthewgdavis.substack.com

About The Thread

The Thread is a biweekly newsletter and podcast from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It follows the connections between the economic and political stories shaping your financial life — for readers and listeners who want a calm, data-driven lens on a noisy news cycle.

Compliance disclosure

Matthew Davis is the co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, LLC (”Sherwood”). Sherwood is a registered investment adviser. This platform and this briefing are solely for informational purposes and do not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. The information contained herein is not intended to convey or constitute legal or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Comments by viewers or third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment outcomes and do not ensure that a viewer will experience a higher level of performance or results. Public comments posted on this site are not selected, amended, deleted, or sorted in any way. If applicable, certain editing of personal identifiable information and misinformation may be deleted. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain Sherwood personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. Sherwood believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated. This briefing may discuss and display charts, graphs, and formulas; these are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. Such charts, graphs, and formulas offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The Thread — Issue #5 | June 1, 2026

The Good You Can't See

In a year of mostly bad headlines, here are three things that are quietly, measurably going right in America — homicide at a modern low, cancer survival transformed, lives lengthened — plus the abundance hiding in plain sight. This issue is about why the good news is so hard to see, and what that invisibility costs the institutions doing the slow work.

Chapters (estimated — will refine after audio QC)

0:00 — Open

0:20 — What I'm pulling at

1:30 — The good you can't see: homicide, cancer, longevity

5:30 — The abundance that doesn't reach you

8:30 — Why you can't see it

10:30 — The cost of not seeing

13:30 — The common thread

14:20 — Close and disclosures

Sources and further reading

The good you can't see

Council on Criminal Justice — Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Year-End 2025 Update

https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-year-end-2025-update/

Stateline — US crime rates fell nationwide in 2024

https://stateline.org/2025/08/08/us-crime-rates-fell-nationwide-in-2024-fbi-report-says/

Congressional Research Service — early-1990s crime wave

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12281

ABC News — US poised to end 2025 with the largest one-year drop in homicides

https://abcnews.com/US/us-poised-end-2025-largest-year-drop-homicides/story?id=128646976

National Cancer Institute, SEER Program — survival, all cancers combined

https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/all.html

AACR Cancer Progress Report 2025

https://cancerprogressreport.aacr.org/progress/cpr25-contents/cpr25-cancer-in-2025/

CDC National Center for Health Statistics — life expectancy

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db521.htm

The abundance that doesn't reach you

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — real GDP per capita, series A939RX0Q048SBEA

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA

Bureau of Labor Statistics — productivity

https://www.bls.gov/productivity/

Why you can't see it

Gapminder — Rosling "Factfulness" knowledge quiz

https://upgrader.gapminder.org/

The cost of not seeing

Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission report

https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GPO-FCIC

KFF — opioid overdose deaths, national trends

https://www.kff.org/mental-health/opioid-overdose-deaths-national-trends-and-variation-by-demographics-and-states/

Congressional Research Service — 737 MAX certification reform

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12843

Washington Post — 2018 stress-test rollback for mid-sized banks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/03/silicon-valley-bank-stress-test/

IQVIA — prescription opioid volumes down 60% from 2011 peak

https://www.iqvia.com/newsroom/2020/12/prescription-opioid-use-in-the-us-has-declined-by-60-from-2011-peak-according-to-new-report-from-the

CDC — statement on provisional 2024 overdose deaths

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2025/2025-statement-from-cdcs-national-center-for-injury-prevention-and-control-on-provisional-2024.html

Federal Reserve

https://www.federalreserve.gov/

Read the full piece

[Issue #5 Substack URL — add on publish]

About The Thread

The Thread is a biweekly briefing that connects the biggest economic and political stories — the ones actually shaping what you pay, what you earn, and what you can afford — and follows them back to what's really going on underneath. Hosted by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, a fee-only RIA in California. Authoritative about the facts. Curious about what they mean. Never alarmist, never partisan. A calmer way to stay informed.

Disclosures

Matthew Davis is the co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, LLC ("Sherwood"). Sherwood is a registered investment adviser. This platform and this briefing are solely for informational purposes and do not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. The information contained herein is not intended to convey or constitute legal or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Comments by viewers or third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment outcomes and do not ensure that a viewer will experience a higher level of performance or results. Public comments posted on this site are not selected, amended, deleted, or sorted in any way. If applicable, certain editing of personal identifiable information and misinformation may be deleted. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain Sherwood personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. Sherwood believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated. This briefing may discuss and display charts, graphs, and formulas; these are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. Such charts, graphs, and formulas offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.