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The Trade War Shutout
Jan 14, 2026
On Wednesday, the scorecard for the trade war arrived. It was a shutout.
The administration’s economic doctrine – predicated on the belief that tariffs would strangle Beijing and repatriate industry – has achieved the inverse. China’s export machine has successfully outmaneuvered US tariffs, posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025 by deepening inroads into non-American markets. American protectionism has built a toll booth that Chinese exporters are happily paying, while US consumers cover the surcharge.
The market reaction was a grim acknowledgment that the Trump trade is a continued liability. The S&P 500 fell 1.0% and the Nasdaq retreated 1.5%.
The data is merciless. Chinese factories have easily routed around the trade war. By penetrating non-US markets and diversifying supply chains, Beijing has insulated itself from Washington and strengthened its economic fortress. The White House is fighting a 20th-century tariff war in a 21st-century fluid economy, and it is losing.
In commodities, capital is continuing its sprint away from the dollar. Another blistering rally sent gold, silver, and copper to all-time highs. This is not an inflation hedge. It is a vote of no confidence in American governance. With the administration attacking the Federal Reserve and evacuating military bases in Qatar, the risk premium on US assets is rising. Investors are buying metal because it cannot be debased by a tweet or sued by the Department of Justice.
The bank earnings season is revealing a sector under siege from both market forces and political caprice.
Wells Fargo is down 5.4% in mid-market trading. The bank missed profit estimates, weighed down by severance costs.
Bank of America is down 4.9%, beating on profit, but falling on fears of rising expenses.
Banks have been silent regarding the administration's new plan to weaken racism-in-lending rules. Banks know that opposing the deregulation will invite regulatory retaliation, yet they know embracing it invites civil liability.
In the luxury retail market, Saks Global Enterprises filed for bankruptcy just a year after its debt-fueled acquisition of Neiman Marcus. The implosion of the luxury retailer is a leading indicator that the wealth effect from the stock market is not trickling down to the cash register.
Tesla is down 2.5% in mid-day trading. Facing a letdown in India where it is forced to discount unsold inventory, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and maker of the sexual abuse imagery creation tool, Grock, announced that Full Self-Driving will switch to a subscription-only model.
Meanwhile, Indian MP Priyanka Chaturvedi called the sexual abuse imagery generated with Elon Musk's Grok to be “both a breach of women's right to privacy as well as unauthorized use of their pictures,” which she said “is not just unethical but also criminal.” India is among several countries that have demanded Musk's immediate response to the issue.
While Donald Trump threatens "very strong action" against Iran, the US military is quietly evacuating personnel from its base in Qatar. This is the reality of the "America First" foreign policy: loud rhetoric masking a physical retreat from strategic strongholds.
In empire-building news, Trump has renewed futile calls for Europe to back his acquisition of Greenland. It is a classic misdirection: demand an island while losing the Middle East.
The administration promised to crush China’s economy and secure the global order. The result? China has a record surplus, the US is retreating from the Persian Gulf, and gold is the only asset hitting record highs. The market has realized that you cannot pay the national debt with Greenland.
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By The Hold ReportJan 14, 2026
On Wednesday, the scorecard for the trade war arrived. It was a shutout.
The administration’s economic doctrine – predicated on the belief that tariffs would strangle Beijing and repatriate industry – has achieved the inverse. China’s export machine has successfully outmaneuvered US tariffs, posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025 by deepening inroads into non-American markets. American protectionism has built a toll booth that Chinese exporters are happily paying, while US consumers cover the surcharge.
The market reaction was a grim acknowledgment that the Trump trade is a continued liability. The S&P 500 fell 1.0% and the Nasdaq retreated 1.5%.
The data is merciless. Chinese factories have easily routed around the trade war. By penetrating non-US markets and diversifying supply chains, Beijing has insulated itself from Washington and strengthened its economic fortress. The White House is fighting a 20th-century tariff war in a 21st-century fluid economy, and it is losing.
In commodities, capital is continuing its sprint away from the dollar. Another blistering rally sent gold, silver, and copper to all-time highs. This is not an inflation hedge. It is a vote of no confidence in American governance. With the administration attacking the Federal Reserve and evacuating military bases in Qatar, the risk premium on US assets is rising. Investors are buying metal because it cannot be debased by a tweet or sued by the Department of Justice.
The bank earnings season is revealing a sector under siege from both market forces and political caprice.
Wells Fargo is down 5.4% in mid-market trading. The bank missed profit estimates, weighed down by severance costs.
Bank of America is down 4.9%, beating on profit, but falling on fears of rising expenses.
Banks have been silent regarding the administration's new plan to weaken racism-in-lending rules. Banks know that opposing the deregulation will invite regulatory retaliation, yet they know embracing it invites civil liability.
In the luxury retail market, Saks Global Enterprises filed for bankruptcy just a year after its debt-fueled acquisition of Neiman Marcus. The implosion of the luxury retailer is a leading indicator that the wealth effect from the stock market is not trickling down to the cash register.
Tesla is down 2.5% in mid-day trading. Facing a letdown in India where it is forced to discount unsold inventory, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and maker of the sexual abuse imagery creation tool, Grock, announced that Full Self-Driving will switch to a subscription-only model.
Meanwhile, Indian MP Priyanka Chaturvedi called the sexual abuse imagery generated with Elon Musk's Grok to be “both a breach of women's right to privacy as well as unauthorized use of their pictures,” which she said “is not just unethical but also criminal.” India is among several countries that have demanded Musk's immediate response to the issue.
While Donald Trump threatens "very strong action" against Iran, the US military is quietly evacuating personnel from its base in Qatar. This is the reality of the "America First" foreign policy: loud rhetoric masking a physical retreat from strategic strongholds.
In empire-building news, Trump has renewed futile calls for Europe to back his acquisition of Greenland. It is a classic misdirection: demand an island while losing the Middle East.
The administration promised to crush China’s economy and secure the global order. The result? China has a record surplus, the US is retreating from the Persian Gulf, and gold is the only asset hitting record highs. The market has realized that you cannot pay the national debt with Greenland.