Stephen Lee, CPA, CPWA®

The Truth About 2026 Tax Refunds and Withholding


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Why Your 2026 Tax Refund Is Smaller: 5 OB3 Law Changes Explained


CPA Stephen Lee explains why 2026 tax refunds may be smaller even if you didn’t pay more in taxes, citing five updates tied to the “One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3)” passed in mid-2025. He covers updated IRS withholding tables that spread tax cuts across paychecks, a new 0.5% AGI floor on charitable deductions for itemizers, the expiration or reduction of residential green energy credits after December 31, 2025, faster phaseouts of new deductions and limits (including the $6,000 senior bonus deduction, SALT cap changes, and caps on no-tax tips and overtime), and confusion around higher 1099-K and 1099-NEC thresholds that can lead gig workers to underreport income and owe self-employment tax. He emphasizes that smaller refunds often reflect more accurate withholding and recommends checking 2026 withholding on the IRS website or adjusting a W-4 if desired.


00:00 Why Your 2026 Refund Is Smaller (It’s Not Higher Taxes)

00:44 Reason #1: The Withholding Trap—OB3 Tables Finally Updated

01:41 Reason #2: New Charitable Deduction Floor (0.5% AGI)

02:27 Reason #3: The Green Credit Cliff—Energy & EV Credits Sunset

03:09 Reason #4: Phase-Out Speed Traps (Senior Bonus, SALT, Tips/Overtime)

04:04 Reason #5: 1099-K Confusion—No Form Doesn’t Mean No Tax

04:36 Bottom Line + What to Do Next (Check Withholding, Adjust W-4)


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Stephen Lee, CPA, CPWA®By Stephen Lee, CPA, CPWA®