The Uncertainty Podcast

Kenny Boyce discusses the recent critiques of probability in the philosophy of religion, principally by John Norton. Kenny is an all-around great guy and (given his considerable philosophical overlap with my own views) a genius.

Video of this interview is available on YouTube.

To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Follow me on X because you’re awesome.

EPISODE CHAPTERS:

00:00 Introduction

00:06 What is the fine-tuning argument?

01:40 Epistemic vs. objective probability

03:40 Why epistemic priors are necessary

07:39 Can probability apply without empirical data?

09:41 John Norton's material theory of induction

13:05 Bayesianism vs. Norton's approach to induction

18:55 The outcome space objection to Bayesianism

26:02 The problem of the priors

28:08 Evidential support and rational belief

33:01 Must rational credences obey the probability axioms?

36:45 Can credences be incomparable?

42:24 Are fine-tuning probabilities unjustified?

50:20 Could deeper physics explain fine-tuning?

52:34 The prior probabilities of theism and naturalism

58:55 Kenny's greatest philosophical uncertainty

The brilliant Substacker Both Sides Brigade joins me for a discussion about three hot topics in our corner of the philosophy of religion internet: the omission theodicy, the miracle case for Catholicism, and the doctrine of eternal conscious torment.Check out Brian Cutter and Philip Swenson's defense of the archon abandonment theodicy, as well as Brian Cutter's paper on Hell and justice.

Video of this interview is available on YouTube.

To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Follow me on X because you’re awesome.

EPISODE CHAPTERS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:06:32 The Archon abandonment theodicy explained

00:12:09 Natural evil and the free will defense

00:16:42 The expected costs of Archon failure

00:26:35 Divine foreknowledge and God's failure to intervene

00:34:04 The epistemology of Catholic miracles

00:41:56 Padre Pio's stigmata and carbolic acid

00:46:07 Divine hiddenness and conflicting miracle evidence

00:53:19 The miracle of Calanda and the restored leg

00:59:46 Fátima and the miracle of the sun

01:08:29 Eternal conscious torment and its defenders

01:14:31 Can Catholic miracles justify eternal conscious torment?

01:24:19 The noetic effects of sin and moral skepticism

01:34:09 Can hell be good for those in it?

01:42:05 Can eternal punishment involve finite suffering?

Noah McKay, a philosophy Ph.D. student at Princeton, joins me to discuss his recent conversation to Catholicism, Catholic miracle evidence, whether the Bible predicts a succession of popes, and Catholic sexual ethics.

Video of this interview is available on YouTube.

To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Follow me on X because you’re awesome.

EPISODE CHAPTERS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:01:53 From Protestantism to Catholicism: the initial case

00:02:24 Craig Keener and the evidence for Christian miracles

00:04:35 Fine-tuning, the resurrection, and other arguments for Christianity

00:05:33 How Joe Schmid helped change his theological views

00:07:13 Marian apparitions, Eucharistic miracles, and Catholicism

00:11:18 Overcoming objections to Catholic theology and history

00:14:26 Why Noah initially rejected the papacy

00:16:24 The biblical case for papal authority

00:22:19 Scripture, tradition, and divine revelation

00:24:21 Does the papacy preserve Christian unity and truth?

00:30:11 Peter, Paul, and the case for apostolic succession

00:48:10 Can the Catholic Church really claim to preserve unity?

01:06:08 How strong is the evidence for Catholic miracles?

01:14:00 Can miracles override moral and philosophical objections?

01:19:07 Catholic sexual ethics, moral intuitions, and disagreement

01:32:37 What philosophical position is Noah most uncertain of?

Mike Titelbaum, author of the two-volume "Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology," dissects the use of probability in philosophy, philosophy of religion, science, and everyday life. We do, of course, discuss my recent discussion with John Norton and the material theory of induction.

Video of this interview is available on YouTube.

To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Follow me on X because you’re awesome.

EPISODE CHAPTERS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:01:11 What is Bayesianism?

00:05:21 Must credences have precise numerical values?

00:07:16 Imprecise credence and comparative confidence

00:14:27 Bayesianism and Norton’s material theory of induction

00:20:02 Can we assign probabilities to the universe’s initial conditions?

00:28:57 Fine-tuning and the principle of indifference

00:35:13 Objective versus subjective Bayesianism

00:39:20 Must rational beliefs obey the probability axioms?

00:47:01 Incommensurability and alternative models of credence

00:55:06 Can Bayesianism evaluate evidence for God?

00:59:08 How probability theory illuminates evidential support

01:03:03 Everyday probability versus mathematical probability

01:07:55 Does subjective Bayesianism entail skepticism?

01:19:46 What is Titelbaum most uncertain about?

Emily Adlam discusses the problems facing several interpretations of quantum mechanics: principal among them, the probability problem. Prepare for discussion of self-locating credences, branch-counting, and whether a mechanism deposits consciousness throughout the branching wavefunction of the universe.

Video of this interview is available on YouTube.

To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Follow me on X because you’re awesome.

EPISODE CHAPTERS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:01:52 The problem of recovering empirical confirmation

00:04:47 The many-worlds interpretation

00:07:01 The measurement problem

00:08:42 The probability problem in many-worlds

00:12:06 The decision-theoretic approach to probability

00:16:33 Self-locating evidence and Everettian quantum mechanics

00:19:20 Pure vs. superficial self-locating credence

00:25:08 Can the Born rule constrain self-locating credence?

00:30:15 Interpretations vs. theories of quantum mechanics

00:34:51 Can we save science from quantum mechanics?

00:44:30 What happened to the Copenhagen interpretation?

00:46:45 What do physicists believe about quantum mechanics?

00:48:27 The anthropic argument for God

00:56:22 Multiverses, fine-tuning, and self-locating evidence

In the hundredth episode of this podcast, I discuss the use, and misuse, of probability in science and philosophy with John Norton. Prepare for a contentious conversation about fundamental issues in probability theory, induction, and cosmic fine-tuning. This one does not disappoint.

Video of this interview is available on YouTube.

To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Follow me on X because you’re awesome.

EPISODE CHAPTERS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:00:30 Formal vs. material theories of induction

00:04:58 Does material induction make induction redundant?

00:11:15 Bayesianism vs. the material theory

00:16:47 Can we say evolution is “probably” true?

00:19:23 Evidential support without probabilities

00:23:16 Can Bayesianism capture inference to the best explanation?

00:25:00 The outcome space dispute

00:29:47 Probability and the danger of false precision

00:31:03 The simulation argument and misapplied probability

00:35:39 The doomsday argument and self-locating evidence

00:38:33 Objective vs. subjective Bayesianism

00:43:36 The bootstrapping problem for probability

00:50:53 Probability in cosmology and the multiverse

00:57:59 Does inflation make our universe more probable?

01:00:19 What is John Norton most uncertain about?

Tim Mawson, professor of philosophy at Oxford, discusses the contours of the newly emerging philosophical investigation into the meaning of life. What does it mean to say that life's meaning is subjective versus objective? Would life be meaningful if we were immortal? And what difference does God make, and not make, to whether life means anything?

Video of this interview is available on YouTube.

To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Follow me on X because you’re awesome.

EPISODE CHAPTERS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:02:55 Open theism and God's relationship to time

00:11:09 Returning to the meaning of life

00:12:06 Why philosophers neglected the meaning of life

00:15:48 What does it mean for life to have meaning?

00:19:20 Objectivism, subjectivism and hybrid theories

00:28:23 Objective meaning, subjective states and purpose

00:35:00 Can there be no meaning to life?

00:39:47 What can God add to life's meaning?

00:43:25 Vocation, purpose and meaningfulness

00:50:50 Does God give some people more meaningful lives?

00:59:20 Death, immortality and the meaning of life

01:00:25 Would eternal life become unbearably boring?

01:07:48 Does infinite time destroy urgency?

01:13:23 Would praising God forever become boring?

01:18:14 What God cannot add to life's meaning

01:21:55 Can God's existence make a life less meaningful?

01:24:18 What is the meaning of life?

Kevin Scharp comes back on the podcast to discuss William Lane Craig’s eight-part case for the existence of God: contingency, cosmology, mathematics, fine-tuning, consciousness, morality, miracles, and experience.

Video of this interview is available on YouTube.

To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Follow me on X because you’re awesome.

EPISODE CHAPTERS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:01:20 Behind the scenes: Kevin vs. William Lane Craig

00:14:11 Craig on probability & inference to the best explanation

00:23:07 Divine psychology and fine-tuning

00:27:06 Argument #1 - Contingency

00:43:30 Does everything need an explanation?

00:49:48 Argument #2 - Kalam cosmological argument

00:51:35 Actual infinity and Hilbert’s Hotel

01:03:06 Argument #3 - Fine-tuning

01:09:53 What does the Big Bang actually tell us?

01:11:53 Divine psychology

01:27:08 Argument #4 - Applicability of mathematics

01:35:08 Argument #5 - Consciousness

01:40:47 Does consciousness really get us to God?

01:45:41 Argument #6 - Morality

01:54:43 Argument #7 - The resurrection of Jesus

01:58:27 Miracles and the laws of nature

02:08:25 Argument #8 - Experience of God

Ralph Weir answers all my questions about the mind-body problem, how we define "physical," whether I can conceive of philosophical zombies, and where panpsychism fits into all this.

Video of this interview is available on YouTube.

To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Follow me on X because you’re awesome.

EPISODE CHAPTERS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:02:35 How Ralph got into philosophy of mind

00:05:52 Eliminativism: do mental states exist?

00:09:00 What is illusionism?

00:10:56 What is phenomenal consciousness?

00:17:53 What are qualia?

00:21:33 What does “physical” actually mean?

00:29:03 Is panpsychism a form of physicalism?

00:35:45 Mapping the mind-body problem

00:45:16 Property dualism vs. substance dualism

00:53:10 What is the strongest case against physicalism?

01:00:32 Philosophical zombies and modal skepticism

01:10:23 Can science settle the mind-body problem?

01:18:20 Mental causation and physical anomalies

01:22:31 Does the evidence favor physicalism?

01:34:07 Which philosophical view is Ralph most uncertain about?

You do NOT want to miss this debate on the perennial question that human beings have wondered about for thousands of years: does God exist? Josh presents both a cumulative case for theism, as well as his signature argument from arbitrary limits. Mike presents his novel argument against God's infinite attributes.

Video of this interview is available on YouTube.

To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.

Follow me on X because you’re awesome.

EPISODE CHAPTERS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:01:48 Joshua Rasmussen’s opening statement

00:17:05 Michael Huemer’s opening statement

00:33:26 Moderated discussion begins

00:35:43 Infinity and the nature of God

00:45:18 What grounds an eternal reality?

00:48:13 God, consciousness, and omniscience

00:54:18 Platonism, infinity, and the digits of π

01:01:18 Can God have unlimited power?

01:07:29 Does theism best explain reality?

01:14:08 Fine-tuning and the multiverse

01:20:27 Does a multiverse actually explain life?

01:26:39 Suffering and the problem of evil

01:32:56 Closing statements