Can political prediction markets act as a better analyst than polls and pundits? In prediction markets where people bet real money on election outcomes, Donald Trump's odds of winning another term spiked at 66% following his assassination attempt while Joe Biden's sunk to 25%. In fact, the markets suggest it is increasingly probable that Biden will not even secure the Democratic nomination! Similar to polls, it is possible that prediction markets can be manipulated and not capture the full picture of what the entire public truly feels, but is one significantly more accurate than the other? Host Jack Russo asks Professor Sam Savage if prediction markets are our most reliable analysis of the future.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/13/2024-election-campaign-updates-biden-trump-rally/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert

https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/

 

Jack Russo

Managing Partner

[email protected]

www.computerlaw.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jackrusso

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