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For the first time in nearly five decades, U.S. and Iranian officials are sitting face-to-face while conflict still rages, an extraordinary shift from backchannel diplomacy to direct negotiation under pressure. Inside a fortified Islamabad summit, Vice President JD Vance and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are attempting to stabilize a crisis defined by three volatile fronts: a fractured ceasefire in Lebanon, a near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, and active military brinkmanship at sea.

With 9.1 million barrels of oil effectively removed from global supply and insurance markets paralyzing trade, the stakes extend far beyond geopolitics into everyday economic reality. A narrow diplomatic window is emerging, centered on creative frameworks to reopen shipping lanes and extend the ceasefire. The outcome will hinge on whether both sides can translate tactical leverage into a fragile but functional path forward before time and mistrust close the door.

Jack Russo

Managing Partner

[email protected]

www.computerlaw.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jackrusso

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