Annie Duke returns for her second appearance on the The Value Perspective. Juan Torres Rodriguez sat down to discuss with Annie more about the probabilistic mind-set. Annie shows how using probabilities to observe your everyday actions can help you to understand the decisions that you make and recognise how and why you make guesses. Her new book ‘How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices’ is available now.

Minutes:

01:06 Intro to Annie 

02:03 How can you help people to think about probabilities? How can use it to express uncertainty?

11:36 Using ranges to understand uncertainty – The Archer’s Mindset

17:10 How can you get better at understanding base rates?

27:28 Overcoming dispersion within a team

35:22 Making decisions under time pressure

41:06 Are outcomes only interesting when they weren’t what you expected?

53:43 How do you avoid “resulting” in reaction to bad outcomes?

01:01:26 Can you give an example of a decision that resulted in a bad outcome?

This episode's book recommendations: 

• The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness by Morgan Housel

How to Change: the Science of Getting From Where You Are To Where You Want to Be by Katy Milkman (available for pre-order)

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