Marvin Barth, Head of FX and EM Macro Strategy at Barclays, joins Andy Evans and Juan Torres Rodriguez on this episode of the Value Perspective. In July, Marvin wrote a piece called 'Managing Uncertainty' which explores how, in this current time of uncertainly, we can look back to other instances like the Great Depression and Dot Com Burst, to learn how people behave under these circumstances and how you can avoid common behaviour traps. 

RUNNING ORDER: 

01:07 Intro

01:36 Managing Uncertainty - what do people do during times of uncertainty?

06:55 Defining risk and uncertainty - in quantifiable and un-quantifiable terms 

11:58 Is this the most uncertain time we've been through in the modern era? 

16:01 Has the greater availability of information increased or decreased uncertainty? 

18:17 How can measurements of uncertainty be factored into risk models?

21:30 How is asset pricing affected by uncertainty? 

24:53 What behaviours changes can be observed during times of uncertainty - chronic stress vs. acute stress

27:46 Marvin's five step framework for making better decisions 

33:52 Does a framework give us false confidence when dealing with uncertainty? 

35:44 An example of a bad decision that was due to luck or process and book recommendations: Calling Bulls**t: the Art of Scepticism in a Data-Driven Work by Carle T Bergstrom and Jevin D West

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