Following headlines of front-line shifts and rumors of a “new phase” in the Ukraine war, is the conflict truly evolving—or are these continuations of deeper, long-term trends? On July 3, Wikistrat hosted Keir Giles to assess Russia’s trajectory, Ukraine’s resilience, and Europe’s readiness in a grinding war that may shape the continent’s future. As the conflict slips from the headlines, the stakes for Europe’s security are only growing.

Keir Giles is a Senior Consulting Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, specializing in Russian military strategy, information warfare, and cybersecurity. He is the author of Russia’s War on Everybody (2022), and co-author of the 2023 Chatham House report How to End Russia’s War on Ukraine.