What does a 4% chance of death really mean?

In Part Two of this conversation, volcanologist Nico Fournier takes us inside the risk calculations behind the Whakaari / White Island eruption recovery operation in New Zealand. When scientists estimated a 4-6% probability that someone could die during a three-hour mission on the island, the question shifted from “Is it safe?” to something far harder: Is this risk acceptable?

We break down how that number was built using expert elicitation, why uncertainty is inherent in volcanic systems, and how scientists communicate risk to police, emergency services, and government officials in real time. Nico explains the difference between individual risk and societal risk in volcano tourism, how legal inquiries reshaped responsibilities after the 2019 eruption, and why emotional decision-making plays a bigger role than most people realise.

The discussion expands globally — from Stromboli and Etna to Lake Taupō and supervolcano risk — exploring how volcanologists forecast eruptions, where prediction succeeds, and where it fails. Nico shares experiences from Montserrat, moments of near real-time forecasting, and a powerful lesson from decades in the field: never judge a decision purely by its outcome.

If you’re interested in volcano science, disaster risk management, emergency response, or how high-stakes decisions are made under uncertainty, this episode goes deep.


🔎 Topics Covered:
 • Whakaari White Island eruption recovery
 • Volcano risk assessment & probability
 • Volcanology and eruption forecasting
 • Expert elicitation explained
 • Volcano tourism safety
 • Supervolcano risk (Lake Taupō)
 • Montserrat eruptions
 • Risk tolerance vs risk calculation
 • Disaster decision-making under uncertainty


🌋 Learn More About Nico:

GNS Science Profile:
https://www.gns.cri.nz/about-us/staff-search/nico-fournier/

International Association of Volcanology (IAVCEI):
https://www.iavceivolcano.org/

Donate to support global volcano research and collaboration:
https://www.iavceivolcano.org/donation-form/

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📲 Follow:

Nico on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/nicofournier
Nico on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nico-fournier-0130704/

IAVCEI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/iavcei/
IAVCEI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/iavcei-int-assoc-of-volcanology-chemistry-of-the-earth-s-interior/posts/?feedView=all

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