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To investors,

Bitcoin has crashed approximately 30% from the all-time high of $126,000 on October 6th. The digital currency is now negative on the year and up less than 1% over the last 12 months. As you would expect, bitcoin holders are very disappointed in the asset’s performance.

Sentiment online is about as negative as I can remember it ever being. But ancedotes on the internet can be misleading. Reddit or X can be echo chambers. So what exactly is the data telling us?

Here are five charts that explain what is happening.

First, Zerohedge shows that “the last time bitcoin was here, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower.”

That data point is a big narrative violation. Everyone, including me, expected bitcoin to close the gap between bitcoin’s price and global liquidity. Since that hasn’t happened, many people are wondering if the market has fundamentally changed now that Wall Street has started adopting the asset.

Regardless of the reason, no one can dispute that bitcoin has corrected 30% in the last month and a half. James van Straten explains this is the “third 30% correction for Bitcoin this cycle. Each correction, the time from peak to trough has compressed, this has accelerated the max fear sentiment.

* August 2024 (Yen Carry): 147 days

* April 2025: (Tariffs) 77 days

* November 2025: 42 days”

And this correction has now hit oversold territory. Coin Bureau shows “Bitcoin’s daily RSI has dropped to 26, its lowest since February, putting Bitcoin in oversold territory.”

Quinten Francois highlights a similar dynamic is playing out with short-term holder supply in profit or loss. We are seeing more than 95% of all coins that have been acquired in the last 155 days are now underwater.

This is obviously a fast way to drive fear into a market and tank sentiment. But markets don’t bleed forever. Eventually an asset gets cheap enough where it becomes attractive to investors. Maybe that is bitcoin at $90,000 per coin or maybe it is lower. I don’t know the exact level where we see the persistent bid return.

However, Bitwise’s André Dragosch says bitcoin whales, those with more than 1,000 bitcoin, have suddenly started buying bitcoin aggressively at the current price level.

So we have bitcoin’s price crashing even though global liquidity is surging higher. We have an asset that is now deeply oversold, which is enticing the bitcoin whales to start buying again. And we have a Fear and Greed index that is still registering below 20.

This is the volatility, chaos, and uncertainty that forged bitcoiners over the years. Those who can keep their head straight when everyone else is losing their mind have traditionally done well. It is much easier said than done though.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin Market Just ROTATED This Month - Here’s What’s Next

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation, we break down the recent sell-off in asset prices, including why the absence of a clear catalyst matters, how it may change the way you think about your portfolio, and where Jordi believes capital could rotate over the next 12–16 months.

Enjoy!

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