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After I closed my last fund, and spent a few years thinking about how the world works, I realised that politics trumps macro. And even when it looks like macro is winning, it just that the politics is allowing it to win. First of all, I recognise that all the doom scrolling headlines on Iran could be true. And maybe its USD 200 a barrel going forward. But politically, Iran looks cooked, and so I feel like taking some shorts off here.