This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Mark Szemeszki joins the podcast to discuss his highly profitable short crypto trades from last year and why his business cycle theory has him sitting in cash. Content Highlights  Three-hundred-and-eighty percent (380%) returns last year. How did he do it? (2:47); The macro view and leading indicators are pointing to a recession right now, which makes risk-taking more problematic in the short term (4:17); His short crypto trades predate the FTX saga (7:33); More on his business cycle theory (10:32); Inflationary pressure is real, including from China's reopening (13:37); More information on catalysts sought when shorting altcoins (16:17); Shorting the narrative on altcoins is a good strategy if you can get a good entry point (20:20); Background on the guest (25:08); More on his trades last year (27:13); Probably 99% of crytpo currencies are useless, even Bitcoin and Ethereum (29:37).  More Information on the Guest  Twitter: @MSzemeszki; Covey portfolio. 

Trader With 380% Gains in 2022 Tells Us Why He's Fully Allocated to Cash

The Contrarian Investor podcast gives voice to those who challenge a prevailing narrative in financial markets. Each episode features an interview with a hedge fund manager, investor, economist or other market participant. The goal is to educate all listeners with an interest in asset allocation and ultimately to provide actionable ideas to the institutional investor community.

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This episode was recorded April 15, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or interruptions. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack page. Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital joins the podcast to discuss his worldview -- one where the US is no longer the sole superpower -- the situation in the Middle East, US fiscal concerns, artificial intelligence, and trends in commodities. And of course how this all impacts his trading strategy. Content Highlights  The world has undergone many changes with the US emerging as its lone superpower. That era is over (2:09); China is a legitimate competitor to the US. It's just having a bad moment due to the property market. But China is not going anywhere as an economic or military power (6:07); The guest's trend-following model trades 500 assets and seeks to capture medium-term changes. What he looks for to enter and exit trades (16:52); One trend is lower electricity prices in Europe (19:19); Populism and the latter stage of democratic government make for a potentially bearish outlook for US stocks (27:15); Background on the guest (41:04); Iran is still a force in the Middle East and beyond. Discussion of the weekend drone attack on Israel, which may have been an attempt at making a point (48:40); As Russia's economy illustrates, sanctions are hard to enforce. There may be inherent bias in many pro-Western analysis... (53:03); US fiscal problems are real. The guest says it has "something like five years" before this takes a serious toll. Artificial intelligence may postpone this however (55:45); Hypersonic missiles: One area where Russia and China have an edge over the US (57:45).  More Information on the Guest  LinkedIn; Website: FlorinCourt.com. 

Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order: Doug Greenig, Florin Court Capital

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 29, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the next trading day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit our substack. Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick -- and it's not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length. Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised.  The guest's microphone setup is significantly better than the host's so don't get discouraged by the host sounding like he's hiding in a cave at the open. Content Highlights  Trends are underrated. Many investors don't respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21); However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back -- as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24); On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30); When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same... (15:36); Contrarian take: there's no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00); Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54); Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20); One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51).  More on the Guest  Website: HXResearch.net; Twitter/X: @EnriqueAbeyta. 

The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It's Positive: Enrique Abeyta, HX Research

This podcast was released for premium subscribers on March 20, 2024. For more information on premium subscriptions please visit our Substack. Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows. Note: The host's mic was a little 'stuffy' for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear! Content Highlights  Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55); No, this isn't about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22); Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder... (18:30) Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37); Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33); What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40).  More on the Guest  Website: StrategicDividendInvestor.com; Twitter: @HistoryInvestor;  Order the book. 

Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History: Daniel Peris

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 1, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers on March 6. For more information on premium memberships visit our Substack. Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today's market environment. Content Highlights  What period from the past compares closest to the one we're living through now? It's a combination of several... (1:56); The last time the US -- and Federal Reserve -- battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today's age... (4:36); The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04); Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51); Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost -- and risks (15:40); Decentralized currencies aren't new and in fact once characterized the US dollar -- and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn't end well... (18:06); Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05); Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator... (27:17); The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36); The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25).  More From the Guest  Website: EnlightenedInvestor.com; Order the book on Amazon.com; LinkedIn: @MarkHiggins. 

Lessons From Financial History: Mark Higgins

This podcast was recorded on Feb. 15, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads, natch). For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack or Supercast. Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one's portfolio. Content Highlights  The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47); "There are things that people don't see" (or at least don't publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08); One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59); Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head... (6:05); Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22); Oxbow has been invested in 'Magnificent 7' stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently... (10:48); Background on the guest (23:07); What previous period in investment history is today's market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer... (29:32).  More from the guest  Website: OxbowAdvisors.com; Twitter: @Oxbow_Advisors; YouTube; LinkedIn: Oxbow_Advisors. 

Trader With 380% Gains in 2022 Tells Us Why He's Fully Allocated to Cash

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