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In this dispatch, Harlan Mercer breaks down President Trump’s Greenland “framework” announcement and the sudden pullback of the Europe tariff threat, explaining what it likely signals about U.S. leverage and Arctic security. Then he walks through the market snapback, why investors repriced so quickly, and what it reveals about uncertainty and negotiating power. Finally, Harlan digs into the IMF’s January 2026 outlook, why the “steady growth” story leans heavily on tech and AI, and how the gap between valuations and real-world returns could set up the next correction.
By Harlan MercerIn this dispatch, Harlan Mercer breaks down President Trump’s Greenland “framework” announcement and the sudden pullback of the Europe tariff threat, explaining what it likely signals about U.S. leverage and Arctic security. Then he walks through the market snapback, why investors repriced so quickly, and what it reveals about uncertainty and negotiating power. Finally, Harlan digs into the IMF’s January 2026 outlook, why the “steady growth” story leans heavily on tech and AI, and how the gap between valuations and real-world returns could set up the next correction.