Everything we think we know about recessions is wrong—or at least mostly wrong—according to ExxonMobil Chief Economist Tyler Goodspeed. He argues downturns aren’t the inevitable result of overheated booms and don’t arrive simply because expansions last too long. In his new book, Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It, which spans 350 years of US and UK economic history, Goodspeed contends recessions are typically the product of sudden, overlapping shocks—particularly to energy and food—that derail otherwise healthy expansions.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oil and gas traders are confronting a potential worst-case scenario after the US-Israeli strike on Iran Saturday: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively paralyzed, Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery is shut and Iran has hit Qatar’s giant liquified natural gas export facility.

On this week’s episode of Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders speaks to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas and Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist for Bloomberg Economics. Together they unpack the unsettlingly wide range of outcomes from the war, and how Russia will gain economically the longer the conflict continues.

Read more: 
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-04/iran-war-the-most-precious-commodity-is-water-not-oil

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this bonus episode, Chancellor Rachel Reeves says Britain's pending trade deal with the US won't affect its view on the conflict with Iran, as she discusses the UK's economic future. The chancellor sat down with Bloomberg's Head of Economics and Government Stephanie Flanders after issuing her Spring Statement on Tuesday, as she seeks to convince markets and voters that Britain’s public finances are resilient enough to weather the fallout from the conflict in Iran and rising global energy prices.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

'Bloomberg This Weekend' features unique conversations on business, news, lifestyle and culture. Join David Gura, Christina Ruffini and Lisa Mateo Saturdays and Sundays for discussions with business leaders, lawmakers and cultural icons.  

Watch the show LIVE on Bloomberg Television from 7AM-10AM Eastern Time.   
Listen to the show LIVE on Bloomberg Radio from 7AM-10AM Eastern Time.   

Listen to the Podcast for the best conversations from the show.   
Subscribe on Apple:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg-this-weekend/id1878739308
Subscribe on Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/show/5DQ8CEg9LeS1xGJSaxt47l

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this episode of Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Josh Green, national correspondent at Bloomberg Businessweek, and Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics, about President Donald Trump’s upbeat economic message during his State of the Union address and the reality on the ground. Affordability fears remain despite government data indicating slowing inflation, and the Supreme Court ruling upending Trump's tariff strategy has thrown fresh uncertainty into the mix. Our guests ask whether those numbers will outweigh shaky consumer sentiment, tariff turmoil and growing anxiety over artificial intelligence ahead of the midterms.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Host Stephanie Flanders is joined by Bloomberg News Editor in Chief John Micklethwait and Jennifer Welch, chief geoeconomics analyst for Bloomberg Economics, to unpack the Munich Security Conference and what it revealed about the shifting global order. From Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s rising influence inside the US administration to Europe’s rethinking of nuclear deterrence and ties with China, the conversation explores how Trump has reshaped alliances.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump has been touting his pick to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell as an economic boon, claiming Kevin Warsh will help deliver an improbable 15% rate of US growth. But financial markets will likely be content with something less hyperbolic: reassurance he won’t simply do the president’s bidding.

The former Fed governor’s nomination initially sent yields and the dollar higher while knocking gold sharply lower, moves consistent with expectations of a tougher line on inflation and a smaller central bank balance sheet. But on this week’s episode of Trumponomics, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman Krishna Guha argues that investors may be over-interpreting Warsh’s hawkish reputation.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump returned to office promising once again to rein in China’s economic rise. Instead, his first year back has delivered Xi Jinping something close to the opposite: a world more open to Chinese exports, more willing to hedge against Washington and increasingly uncertain about the reliability of the US or its commitments.

On this episode of Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Lowy Institute Senior Fellow Richard McGregor and Bloomberg Executive Editor Dan Ten Kate about how the US president’s unpredictable and often combative diplomacy has given the Chinese president more room to maneuver—all without forcing Beijing to change its export-heavy, state-driven economic model.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nigel Farage sits down with Stephanie Flanders on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos to argue that Brexit and Donald Trump weren’t shocks, but the opening chapters of a global shift away from consensus politics and globalization. From US growth and NATO to China, energy and Britain’s post-European Union future, Farage lays out his vision of "national interest" in a fractured world.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Donald Trump’s return is forcing allies, executives and investors to rethink how they deal with an economic superpower that keeps everything “on the table.”

In this episode of Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg News Editor in Chief John Micklethwait, Bloomberg Television host Annmarie Hordern and Sridhar Natarajan, Bloomberg News’ chief Wall Street correspondent, examine whether Europe is finally prepared to push back after a year of accommodating tariffs, trade threats and now even territorial claims while Trump scrambles to address an affordability crisis at home while pushing a business-friendly approach to AI abroad. The conversation explores how this historic divergence from rules-based economics is reshaping global alliances, US corporate strategy and the future of both US markets and the world economy.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.