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Trump's foreign policy legacy, US presidential election, Myanmar votes, Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty and China-Taiwan fisticuffs
This week on GeoPod Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss US President Donald J Trump's foreign policy legacy.
On the Middle East, Trump has arguably made the biggest contribution since Bill Clinton and the Oslo Accords. Defeating ISIS, pulling out of the Iran agreement, and brokering agreements between Israel and three Arab nations has resulted in a paradigm shift in the Middle East. Will this mean peace at last?
On trade and multilateralism, Trump's legacy is mixed. Pulling the US out of the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement was a setback for trade liberalisation, and the trade war with China has not delivered the promised benefits for US manufacturers. Withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Change Agreement and stopping funding for the World Health Organisation, while playing well for domestic politics, wont serve US interests well into the future. Ceding ground in multilateral organisations just leaves more room for revisionist powers like China to build their influence and craft these institutions in an image more to their liking.
We discuss this year's biggest political news story - the US presidential election. While Trump is making a comeback, polls still put Biden clearly ahead. But the pundits are much more cautious this time given the surprise result in 2016.
On 8 November, another country goes to the polls. Myanmar will hold its third election since its transition to democracy. Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy looks set to win once again despite her rocky legacy on democracy and human rights. Ethnic tensions and the continued influence of the military still haunt Myanmar's politics and society, though.
The UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons will finally come into force after Honduras ratified it. While the treaty makes the development, testing, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons illegal for those countries that have signed it, all nuclear weapons states, NATO countries and countries that benefit from the US' nuclear umbrella have not. It's hard to uninvent something and realism means nuclear weapons aren't going away any time soon.
Finally, things between China and Taiwan are hotting up, and not just between their boxing diplomats in Fiji. Expect the next US president, whether it's Trump or Biden, to be dealing with this burning issue during his term. China's President Xi Jinping is determined to return Taiwan to China and the Taiwanese aren't having a bar of this, especially considering the treatment of Hong Kong. Things will start to get rather nasty over the next few years.
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By Tenjin ConsultingThis week on GeoPod Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss US President Donald J Trump's foreign policy legacy.
On the Middle East, Trump has arguably made the biggest contribution since Bill Clinton and the Oslo Accords. Defeating ISIS, pulling out of the Iran agreement, and brokering agreements between Israel and three Arab nations has resulted in a paradigm shift in the Middle East. Will this mean peace at last?
On trade and multilateralism, Trump's legacy is mixed. Pulling the US out of the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement was a setback for trade liberalisation, and the trade war with China has not delivered the promised benefits for US manufacturers. Withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Change Agreement and stopping funding for the World Health Organisation, while playing well for domestic politics, wont serve US interests well into the future. Ceding ground in multilateral organisations just leaves more room for revisionist powers like China to build their influence and craft these institutions in an image more to their liking.
We discuss this year's biggest political news story - the US presidential election. While Trump is making a comeback, polls still put Biden clearly ahead. But the pundits are much more cautious this time given the surprise result in 2016.
On 8 November, another country goes to the polls. Myanmar will hold its third election since its transition to democracy. Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy looks set to win once again despite her rocky legacy on democracy and human rights. Ethnic tensions and the continued influence of the military still haunt Myanmar's politics and society, though.
The UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons will finally come into force after Honduras ratified it. While the treaty makes the development, testing, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons illegal for those countries that have signed it, all nuclear weapons states, NATO countries and countries that benefit from the US' nuclear umbrella have not. It's hard to uninvent something and realism means nuclear weapons aren't going away any time soon.
Finally, things between China and Taiwan are hotting up, and not just between their boxing diplomats in Fiji. Expect the next US president, whether it's Trump or Biden, to be dealing with this burning issue during his term. China's President Xi Jinping is determined to return Taiwan to China and the Taiwanese aren't having a bar of this, especially considering the treatment of Hong Kong. Things will start to get rather nasty over the next few years.