What would a Trump presidency mean around the world?

In our latest report, our guest economist James Bennett answers this question, exploring the likely wide ranging global impacts of the coming Trump White House.

There are two key themes to focus on: Trump’s dislike of “unbalanced trade” and his maverick deal making.

Taking a quick look at America’s bilateral trade deficits (per the chart), a few economies stand out as vulnerable to a big switch up in US trading relationships. Countries on America’s doorstep naturally have big exposure, but major European manufacturing economies (like Germany and Italy) are also vulnerable.

Trump’s deal making on the other hand will throw a little spiciness into incredibly complex conflicts with key flashpoints being Russia-Ukraine, the Middle East, and China-Taiwan.

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