Typhoon Bearing

Craig Martell has seen AI adoption from more angles than almost anyone: a Silicon Valley machine learning leader (LinkedIn, Dropbox), the first Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer (CDAO) of the Department of Defense, and now CTO of Lockheed Martin. He brings that rare Valley-to-Pentagon vantage to one question: what does it actually take to field AI you can trust when lives are on the line.

Craig makes the case that AI is "statistics at scale" — gather data from the past to predict the future, and therefore guaranteed to be sometimes wrong. So the real work is defining the error envelope use case by use case and building "human escape hatches" where mistakes are cheap to detect and correct. We dig into why he's deeply bullish on the technology yet skeptical of a "not fully baked" product that ships with an asterisk, the product-management gap between how government writes thousand-page requirements and how the best new entrants build, and how the US and Chinese defense industrial bases really differ.

We then get into buy vs. build and learning from Ukraine, Silicon Valley's 70%-good-enough mentality vs. defense's demand for 100%, the fight over IP ownership and the stewardship of taxpayer dollars, and where an Apollo-scale public bet might still be worth making. Finally, the frontier Lockheed is investing in: quantum computing, sensing, and PNT; human-machine teaming and collaborative combat aircraft; microelectronics and friend-shored fabs; and Craig's "principle of stuff" — why all computing is ultimately manufacturing, and why low-power inference at the edge is going to matter.

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This and all episodes are enhanced with lots of useful links and transcripts which you can read at typhoonbearing.com

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Timestamps:

(00:29) Ukraine, Iran, and the future of modern war

(01:29) AI as "statistics at scale," guaranteed to be sometimes wrong

(06:44) Human escape hatches and error envelopes

(09:59) CDAO to CTO: the product-management gap in defense

(11:38) How the US and Chinese industrial bases differ

(14:06) The "not fully baked" product and the asterisk

(24:45) When will AI make a lethal decision on its own?

(28:58) Buy vs. build, and learning from Ukraine

(31:01) Silicon Valley's 70% vs. defense's 100%

(38:03) IP ownership, taxpayer dollars, and parallelism

(43:44) Quantum, GPU concentration, and an Apollo-scale bet

(48:34) Quantum sensing, PNT, and human-machine teaming

(55:15) Microelectronics, fabs, and friend-shoring

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I love mail. Send comments, critiques, and takes to ⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠

⁠Visit the Typhoon Bearing website: typhoonbearing.substack.com⁠

Follow me on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠⁠ @ChaseHDalton⁠

Bill Wiseman leads McKinsey’s Global Semiconductor Practice and founded its Taipei Design Lab. He brings a rare mix of semiconductor engineering and national security experience to one question: what happens if Taiwan cannot ship silicon. We unpack why Taiwan risk is bigger than “leading edge logic” including NOR flash, DRAM, advanced packaging, and the electronics manufacturing ecosystem.

Bill explains why this is a 15 year-plus problem, why markets struggle to price it, and why collective action fails without coordination. We then shift to export controls and coalition durability, why ASML and the Netherlands matter, and how corporate incentives differ for commodity components vs ecosystem businesses.

Finally, we get into the messy reality of IP leakage, cyber theft, and why quantum readiness may be the most practical near-term move, plus what the CHIPS Act should be measured on: HBM, packaging, talent, power, and grid margin.

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This and all episodes are enhanced with lots of useful links and transcripts which you can read at https://typhoonbearing.substack.com/p/semiconductors-and-national-security

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Timestamps:

(00:17) Taiwan disruption, global shock

(03:12) Markets, pricing, game theory

(07:05) Taiwan politics, silicon shield

(10:04) Board plans, inventory reality

(17:08) Export controls, coalition durability

(25:38) IP theft, quantum risk

(34:35) CHIPS Act success metrics

(46:01) Security needs beyond leading edge

(55:11) Recommendations and closing

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I love mail. Send comments, critiques, and takes to ⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

Visit the Typhoon Bearing website: typhoonbearing.substack.com

Follow me on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠ @ChaseHDalton⁠

Please also share, rate, and subscribe to help the show grow. 

Traditionally war came with loot. This loot took a lot of forms, ranging from slaves (definitely not allowed today), to enemy military equipment, and whatever you could plunder from the enemies cities and countryside. We still have a few vestiges of these sorts of takings that are "legal" in warfare today. Andrew Clapham argues that we should almost completely ban these sorts of prize-taking, along with blockades and other tools of warfare. I'd actually argue that they are not all bad, and we have a pretty good debate about the topic on this podcast.

Visit the Typhoon Bearing website: typhoonbearing.substack.com

Support the show here: https://usnavalhistorypodcast.com/#/portal/signup

Email me at: ⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

Follow me on IG: ⁠⁠⁠@USNavyPodcast⁠⁠⁠

Follow me on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠ @ChaseHDalton⁠

Please also share, rate, and subscribe to help the show grow. 

When the biggest country in the world and the most powerful country in the world can't even talk to each other, how can they possibly avoid war? Well, in the case of the Chinese and British in the early 19th Century... they didn't!

In this episode of the U.S. Naval History Podcast, I interview Professor Henrietta Harrison on the leadup to war that in some ways parallels our world today.

We discuss:

- The difficulty in getting the right information to the country's leaders and the dangers when this does not happen well

- How difficult it is to translate not only languages, but cultures and worldview between Anglo-American English and Chinese

- How just being close enough to do the direct translation in often seen. as inherently suspicious

- The not-so-great fates of the two key interpreters between England and China

- The First Opium War

Visit the Typhoon Bearing website: typhoonbearing.substack.com

Support the show here: https://usnavalhistorypodcast.com/#/portal/signup

Email me at: ⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

Follow me on IG: ⁠⁠⁠@USNavyPodcast⁠⁠⁠

Follow me on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠ @ChaseHDalton⁠

Please also share, rate, and subscribe to help the show grow. 

Why did the United States fight the Barbary Wars? How did early American diplomacy, economics, and naval power converge to confront North Africa's Barbary states?

In this episode of the U.S. Naval History Podcast, Chase Dalton interviews Professor Abby Mullen from the United States Naval Academy, author of To Fix a National Character: The United States in the First Barbary War, 1800-1805. Together, they explore the Barbary Wars through the lens of diplomacy, economic strategy, and naval action.

We discuss:

- The diplomatic landscape between the United States, Barbary states, and European powers,

- The importance of trade routes and the Mediterranean post-Independence,

- How American naval captains operated under minimal guidance, acting as both diplomats and warriors,

- The ideological motivations driving early U.S. foreign policy, and

- The role of European powers and international relations in shaping the outcome of the Barbary Wars.

We also dive into how the U.S. Navy developed through these conflicts and the lessons learned for future engagements.

Visit the Typhoon Bearing website: typhoonbearing.substack.com

Support the show here: https://usnavalhistorypodcast.com/#/portal/signup

Email me at: ⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

Follow me on IG: ⁠⁠⁠@USNavyPodcast⁠⁠⁠

Follow me on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠ @ChaseHDalton⁠

Please also share, rate, and subscribe to help the show grow. 

Buy To Fix A National Character here! (https://www.amazon.com/Fix-National-Character-Barbary-1800-1805/dp/1421449269)

In this episode I talk with Kate Epstein about her new book "Analog Superpowers: How a 20th Century Technology Theft Built the National Security State."

Key points:

- The book focuses on the development of fire control technology for battleships in Britain and how the U.S. essentially stole this technology.

- The challenges of protecting military inventions through patents while maintaining secrecy.

- The concept of "technology laundering" and how nations rewrite history to appear more innovative.

- Parallels are drawn between UK-US tech transfers in the early 20th century, US-Soviet dynamics during the Cold War, and current US-China tensions.

- The evolution of export control laws is discussed, tracing their origins from British influence to modern-day semiconductor restrictions.

Visit the Typhoon Bearing website: typhoonbearing.substack.com

Support the show here: https://usnavalhistorypodcast.com/#/portal/signup

Email me at: ⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

Follow me on IG: ⁠⁠⁠@USNavyPodcast⁠⁠⁠

Follow me on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠ @ChaseHDalton⁠

Please also share, rate, and subscribe to help the show grow. 

How did the military-industrial complex get it's start? How did it affect our early wars?

Visit the Typhoon Bearing website: typhoonbearing.substack.com

Support the show here: https://usnavalhistorypodcast.com/#/portal/signup

Email me at: ⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

Follow me on IG: ⁠⁠⁠@USNavyPodcast⁠⁠⁠

Follow me on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠ @ChaseHDalton⁠

Please also share, rate, and subscribe to help the show grow. 

In this episode, I dive into the dramatic Battle of Memphis and its prelude, a crucial moment in the struggle for control of the Mississippi River during the Civil War. Three unusual fleets - two Union and one Confederate - converged on Memphis in June 1862.

We examine the desperate improvisation of the Confederate River Defense Fleet, the Union's evolving Western Flotilla, and the controversial addition of Charles Elliott's civilian-built ram fleet. Get ready for a blow-by-blow account of river warfare, complete with surprise attacks, chaotic melees, and spectators watching from the bluffs.

This is the story of how the Union secured control of the upper Mississippi, opening the way to Vicksburg. It's a tale of innovative tactics, clashing personalities, and a battle that showcased the rapidly evolving nature of naval warfare - where ironclads, rams, and cotton-clads clashed in a way never seen before or since.

See the maps and transcript for this episode:

www.usnavalhistorypodcast.com/the-battle-of-memphis/

Financially support the show here: https://www.usnavalhistorypodcast.com/#/portal/signup

Visit the Typhoon Bearing website: typhoonbearing.substack.com

Support the show here: https://usnavalhistorypodcast.com/#/portal/signup

Email me at: ⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

Follow me on IG: ⁠⁠⁠@USNavyPodcast⁠⁠⁠

Follow me on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠ @ChaseHDalton⁠

Please also share, rate, and subscribe to help the show grow. 

Imagine you're a Union soldier, slogging through knee-deep Mississippi mud, trying to outflank a fortress that's not even on dry land. Welcome to Island Number 10.

In this episode, we're diving into the Battle of Island Number Ten. We'll explore how a patch of land barely above the waterline became a linchpin in the Mississippi. You'll hear about innovative tactics- from digging canals through swamps to ironclad ships running gauntlets in pitch-black thunderstorms.

This is a story of naval duels on a river, of mortar boats raining iron from the sky, and of commanders gambling with thousands of lives. It's about the precarious nature of nineteenth-century siege warfare and where spring floods could wash away the best-laid plans.

See the maps and transcript for this episode:

www.usnavalhistorypodcast.com/the-river-war-island-no-10-2/

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Financially support the show here: https://www.usnavalhistorypodcast.com/#/portal/signup⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Visit the Typhoon Bearing website: typhoonbearing.substack.com

Support the show here: https://usnavalhistorypodcast.com/#/portal/signup

Email me at: ⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

Follow me on IG: ⁠⁠⁠@USNavyPodcast⁠⁠⁠

Follow me on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠ @ChaseHDalton⁠

Please also share, rate, and subscribe to help the show grow. 

In this episode, we dive into the Civil War battles that cracked open the Western theater: Fort Henry and Fort Donelson. These were the fights where Grant and his ironclads showed what they could do.

We explore how the messy politics of border states set the stage, why Kentucky and Tennessee were so crucial, and how these victories let the Union push deep into Confederate territory. Get ready for a blow-by-blow of river warfare, complete with frozen soldiers, daring attacks, and Grant's famous "unconditional surrender" moment.

This is the story of how the Union found its fighting general and how the mighty Mississippi started to slip from Confederate hands. It's a tale of innovative weapons, bold strategies, and the battles that changed the course of the war.

See the maps and transcript for this episode:

www.usnavalhistorypodcast.com/river-war-forts-henry-and-donelson/

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Financially support the show here: https://www.usnavalhistorypodcast.com/#/portal/signup⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

But really, please do support the show if you are able. It's somewhat expensive to make and host the show, and I'm in the red every month.

Visit the Typhoon Bearing website: typhoonbearing.substack.com

Support the show here: https://usnavalhistorypodcast.com/#/portal/signup

Email me at: ⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

Follow me on IG: ⁠⁠⁠@USNavyPodcast⁠⁠⁠

Follow me on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠ @ChaseHDalton⁠

Please also share, rate, and subscribe to help the show grow.