As the U.S.-Iran War enters week four, we assess the impacts to financial markets and the risk of escalation. We also assess the outcome of last week’s FOMC meeting and what it suggests about the road ahead for monetary policy. Plus, a look at portfolio positioning recommendations from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors have two related problems in pricing risks around the Gulf war. US objectives remain unclear, making it impossible to measure progress (and thus the likely length of the war). Statements from top US administration officials give different and at times contradictory assessments of the war; in the absence of measurable objectives, this is all markets have to respond to. The result is volatility.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 22 March 2026.

Investment by armchair generals seems to be the fashion. Markets are reacting to political comments about the length of the Gulf war. With uncertainty about US objectives, it is hard to for investors to assess how much more fighting is required to achieve the “end goal”. The economic war may also continue after the US withdraws. US gasoline prices keep rising—average prices may reach USD 4/gallon this week.

Attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure impacted financial markets. Investors have partially looked through short-term increases in energy prices, assuming consumers and businesses will find the means to adapt. Damaging infrastructure raises the risk of prices staying higher for longer, extending the damage beyond the ability of economies to adapt. US President Trump’s urgent social media posting on the attacks suggests some awareness of domestic economic and political costs, perhaps reinforcing investors’ probability of an early US withdrawal.

The Federal Reserve is universally expected to leave policy unchanged. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference excites attention for three reasons. 1. Powell may stay as Fed Chair beyond May, so is a less lame “lame duck” leader. 2. Markets want to know the Fed’s reaction to oil prices and the war. US retail gasoline prices are almost exactly a dollar (35.5%) above 2026 lows, having risen every day for four weeks. The Fed’s concern is second-round effects.

Muni tax-equivalent yields are attractive and credit is resilient but elevated geopolitical uncertainties and weaker technicals in March call for balancing risk and return. We discuss with Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Andrew Dubinsky, Senior U.S. Economist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Energy infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates has seemingly been hit by Iranian attacks—the UAE recently stopped sharing missile and drone intercept data. This pushed oil prices higher. British Airways has cancelled all flights to Dubai and other regional destinations until June. US President Trump reiterated pleas for help, saying countries were eager to assist (declining to name them). Markets are likely to see-saw between concerns over damage to oil infrastructure, and hopes that the US may look for an exit.

We are now in the third week of the US-Iran conflict and investors remain focused on how long it could last and the potential economic consequences. There are other developments relevant for the investment outlook, including economic data and how the Fed incorporates the oil price shock into its decision-making at the FOMC meeting this week. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses this all, and how position portfolios. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Economic theory often assumes perfect information. This is obviously only true in economic fantasies. Social media and fake news risk distorting real-world market prices. The Gulf war is contributing to this, with governments seeking to influence social media influencers and television reports, or not giving out information at all. This encourages fake news and risks discrediting accurate information, undermining market pricing