UBS On-Air: Market Moves

South Korean export data for early November rebounded from October’s decline, led by sales of microchips and ships—neither of these directly suggest consumer spending is behind the improving trade data. Chip demand has been focused on investment spending lately, and shipping construction has too long a lead time to be a short-term indicator of global demand.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares expectations for the year ahead, across global regions. We also spend time reflecting on this year’s “roaring twenties” scenario - notably its’ impact to global growth and markets, along with its’ anticipated presence throughout this decade.

UK consumer and producer price inflation data for October leads today’s data calendar. The headline numbers will be distorted by the weirdness of UK energy pricing (despite large-scale renewable energy generation, gas prices determine what consumers pay). Bank of England Governor Bailey yesterday put some emphasis on service sector inflation, while advocating a gradual reduction of rates.

There is a quiet data calendar. Eurozone final consumer price inflation data for October is the textbook definition of an economic non-event. The regional numbers are all out, and final consumer price data almost never changes from the initial release. Markets are also comfortable in their expectations for ECB rate cuts in the coming months.

As we await President-elect Trump’s personnel selections to carry out US economic policy, Jason examines the mix of known intended supply-side fiscal policies of the incoming administration. We also touch on the implications of potential fiscal policy to the course of monetary policy, along with assess the integrity of the “Trump trade” following recent indications of cracks. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors in the wake of the US election outcome, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets had, perhaps, hoped that the next US treasury secretary would serve as a defender of free trade in the administration, and at least seek to minimize the severity of US consumer tax hikes. Media reports suggest that the search is being broadened, and commitment to the tax increases is being sought. The challenge of the proposed tariffs is not just the rate, but also the breadth (and the possibility of universal blanket tariffs).

China’s singles’ consumer spending festival may have helped support October retail sales data. Industrial production data was less surprising, although the detail hinted at some export strength. It seems rather early for the story of foreigners buying goods in anticipation of tariffs—buy now to avoid taxes later—to apply.

We recap President-elect Trump’s visit to Washington DC (including his White House meeting with President Biden), along with review the known staff picks and cabinet nominations of the incoming Trump administration. Plus, a look at incoming Congressional leadership, and a review of the Congressional agenda priorities between now and year end. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs the latest US inflation data, along with considers the potential impact of US-imposed tariffs (to nations such as China) to the US inflationary environment. We also calculate whether tariffs will ultimately pay for lower taxes in the US.