The seventh edition of CIO’s 250 years of US innovation series, A great future in plastics, examines how credit cards evolved from a simple piece of plastic into a global payments infrastructure. Our conversation explores how networks, technology, and trust transformed everyday transactions, reshaping commerce and the modern economy. Featured is Jeff Harwood, Financials Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the less market impact US President Trump’s early morning social media posts are likely to have. While physical reserves exist, prices can move on expectations. As physical shortages become a threat, expectations will have less of an impact—bad news for speculators placing conveniently timed trades. However, consumers can absorb higher prices for a time.

Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, drops by to review the latest allocation recommendations and key messages from the UBS Chief Investment Office, per the May edition of the UBS House View. We also assess how the markets are now viewing the US-Iran War, performance of Q1 corporate earnings, and what to expect from this week’s FOMC meeting. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Media reports suggest Iran’s government has proposed terms to the US to allow a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets’ bias to optimism produced a positive reaction. The terms apparently defer nuclear discussions, which may be a problem for the US administration. Recent polls gave US President Trump very weak approval ratings over the US affordability crisis, suggesting there could be political pressures to return to the pre-war position in the Gulf.

An influx of large-scale US IPOs is set to reshape market dynamics, creating new competition for capital, index presence, and profit pools. Fast-tracked index additions could drive rotation out of the largest index names. At the same time new AI-focused companies target digital profit pools. We see this as a signal to diversify beyond the biggest index weights and consider physical assets less exposed to AI disruption. Tune in at the start of the trading week for this regular market outlook from Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer Americas and Global Head of Equities.

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David explains CIO’s positive outlook for US equities, reflects on why equity markets have shown resiliency despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, outlines the risk factors that could trigger volatility, and reviews Q1 earnings results at the mid-point. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A look at the landscape for Agency RMBS and the Housing Market, including an outlook for rates, and thoughts around broader fixed income positioning. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Bryan Contreras

The Wile E Coyote effect—running off the edge of a cliff, and continuing to run before eventually gravity takes over—remains evident for developed economy consumers. UK March retail sales (which adjust for price effects) showed rising volumes of oil and non-oil sales. The surge in oil volumes means part of the UK’s oil reserves are stored in consumers' cars. The stronger non-oil sales signal consumers will cut savings rates to maintain (or increase) living standards. This cannot carry on forever, but economic gravity has yet to exert itself.

Michael Kass is a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets with Baron Capital. We discuss why investors should consider global diversification in an equity portfolio, and what a globally resilient portfolio might consist of. Plus, a look at opportunities and risk considerations specific to Emerging Market equities, along with broader investment trends in focus across Emerging Markets. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US Treasury Secretary Bessent admitted “several” Gulf countries asked the US for dollar swap lines to cover short-term funding needs from the Gulf war. Where travel has collapsed, or where plunging oil and gas volumes are not offset by price effects, near-term economic support is needed. Longer-term reconstruction and rearmament must be paid for. Sovereign wealth funds may be used in the future, but swaps are less disruptive near-term funding. The economic question is whether this dollar income is spent in the US, or whether dollars are sold and the proceeds spent elsewhere.