This episode features a conversation with the historian Philip Snow on the evolution of relations between Russia and China. Drawing on archival research, the discussion traces the relationship from the early border settlements at Nerchinsk and Kyakhta to contemporary geopolitical and economic cooperation, highlighting how frontier regions such as Manchuria, Mongolia, and Xinjiang have shaped interaction between the two powers.

The interview examines key turning points, including the Sino-Soviet split, as well as structural constraints (geography, distance, and technology) that have historically limited escalation along the border. It also explores post-Soviet asymmetries, energy interdependence, and projects such as Power of Siberia 2.

Finally, the conversation considers the implications of contemporary Sino-Russian alignment, addressing their views on multipolar order, persistent frictions in the Russian Far East, and China’s potential capacity to lead globally without Russia.

Philip Snow

Philip Snow has been travelling in Russia and China since the 1960s, and has spent nearly two decades researching what is arguably the most consequential bailateral relationship of our era.

Selected Publications:

Snow, P. (1989). The star raft: China’s encounter with Africa. Cornell University Press.

Snow, P. (2003). The Fall of Hong Kong: Britain, China, and the Japanese occupation. Yale University Press.

Snow, P. (2023). China and Russia: Four Centuries of conflict and Concord. Yale University Press.

Content

00:00 – Introduction

01:10 – Archival Research and Interpreting Russian–Chinese Narratives

06:21 – Nerchinsk and Kyakhta: Origins of Long-Term Stability

10:46 – Manchuria, Mongolia, and Xinjiang as Strategic Pivot Zones

14:18 – Mongolia’s Role in Sino-Russian Relations

14:51 – Structural Constraints on Escalation and Major War

18:51 – The Role of Distance and Technology in Military Encounters

19:28 – Manchuria and the Historical Foundations of Chinese Strategic Mistrust

24:17 – The Sino-Soviet Split and the Limits of Ideological Alliances

27:05 – Energy Interdependence and Post-Soviet Asymmetry

31:20 – Power of Siberia 2: Economic Logic and Geopolitical Stakes

32:12 – Why Sino-Russian Decision-Making Is Often Slow

32:40 – Surface Alignment vs Structural Frictions in the Russian Far East

39:54 – Sino-Russian Alignment in Opposition to the West

42:45 – Do Russia and China Share a Vision of Multipolar Order?

45:44 – China’s Capacity to Lead Without Russia

46:45 – Critiquing Philip Snow’s Interpretation

48:21 – How to Study China and Russia More Effectively

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