The US trade negotiations between the US and the EU aren’t going well, China doesn’t even want to talk. Both US and China now deploy measures other than tariffs to fight each other as Nvidia and Boeing are left in the crossfire. China announced that they will not buy Boeing and Trump administration decided to restrict the export of Nvidia’s H20 chips to China. ASML reported weaker than expected orders in the Q1 due to tariff uncertainty and TSM is expected to announce around 56% profit growth in Q1 thanks to a 42% increase in sales but forecasts will probably matter more than the actual numbers this earnings season because of tariff uncertainties.

In summary, risks prevail. Note that the latest GDP data released in China this morning topped analyst estimates, while the S&P500’s daily chart is now flashing red with a death cross formation – where the 50-DMA crossed below the 200-DMA.

Unsurprisingly, the escalating trade tensions continue to boost appetite in gold while the US dollar and equities remain under pressure.

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