After a 2018 that had its highs and lows, what might 2019 have in store from a credit risk management standpoint?  Here are four key developments in credit scoring that we will be keeping an eye on in the new year: Consumer-Contributed Data Takes Center Stage Momentum is high in the consumer-contributed data space: consumers are getting more comfortable with sharing their data, provided they are presented with clear benefits for doing so.  Mandates, such as the Revised Payment Services Directive (PSD2), are ushering in the era of Open Banking around the globe.  Additionally, developments, such as the recent launch of the Financial Data Exchange (FDX), point to increasing collaboration between financial institutions and data aggregation vendors (such as Finicity, Plaid, Quovo, and Envestnet | Yodlee) to facilitate secure and efficient transfer of consumer-permissioned financial data. In 2019, enhanced credit underwriting via digitally contributed-consumer data will hit the mainstream.  With solutions such as the recently announced UltraFICO™ Score, lenders will be able to efficiently access and use verified data that reflects responsible financial activity to gain deeper insights into the credit risk profile of prospective customers. This will enable lenders to more effectively match the best credit offer to consumers. The increasing availability of solutions that utilize consumer contributed data, such as UltraFICO™ Score, will help to further empower consumers to obtain the credit they seek under competitive terms, particularly for those with sparse or inactive traditional credit files.  FICO research has found that 7 out of 10 consumers who exhibit responsible financial behavior in their checking and savings accounts could see a higher credit score with the UltraFICO™ Score. Risk in Bankcard Originations on the Rise Since 2015-2016, we have observed a shift downwards in the relationship between repayment odds (defined as the number of on-time payers for every one defaulter) at a given FICO® Score in the U.S.  This shift has been most notable for the bankcard originations population.   Often, a downward shift in the odds-to-score relationship leads to tightening of underwriting, as lenders seek to ensure that new bookings are appropriately aligned with their risk tolerance.  There is some evidence that this tightening is occurring, with the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) reporting higher reject rates based on its Oct. 2018 SCE Credit Access Survey. Per figure 1 below, the shift in odds-to-score for bankcard originations has generally been a parallel one, indicating a systemic shift in risk across the board.  Put another way, across all FICO Score ranges, the likelihood that a consumer with a newly issued bankcard will pay that card as agreed has decreased.  The parallel shift implies that the ability of the FICO Score to rank-order repayment risk remains high: instead, there is a factor impacting new bankcard repayment beyond what is captured in the credit report.  No clear explanation for this downward shift in repayment odds has emerged---our research has found that this shift is consistent regardless of factors such as geographic region, age, and card payment behavior (e.g., revolver vs. transactor). We will be closely monitoring the odds-to-score relationship in 2019.  It will be interesting to see if lender efforts to stem this trend via changes to their underwriting policies and the use of new data sources will offset further repayment pressures that are emerging, such as rising interest rates and increased volatility in the financial markets. Average FICO Score — Has It Peaked? Speaking of emerging pressures, will 2019 be the year that the streak of 8+ consecutive years of increases in the average national FICO® Score comes to an end?  Since October 2009, the average year-over-year FICO Score has steadily and consistently increased, from a low of 686 in 2009 to the latest high of 704 as of 2018. This has been driven by a