A Dash of Coldwater Economics

US Cycle Ends in Transition not Recession


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Once again, I entrusted NotebookLM to master the structure and details of my weekly Informed / Informal email. This one was tough to write, because it pitched my favourite recession early warning signal (heavy truck sales, flashing red), against the absence of any obvious ‘stock problem’ which needs to be answered by a slowdown in flows (ie, a recession).

Which strut of argument do I have to abandon? Let our charming AI hosts guide you to my answer.



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A Dash of Coldwater EconomicsBy Michael Taylor