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US Dollar Foreshadows Equity Risk?
Watch the US dollar. The dollar began selling off - quite literally - with the death of George Floyd (please see the earlier Macro ESG piece on that). The continued weakness in the USD appears to be less tied to risk-off dollars and risk-on equities than it is to people getting out of the US altogether and could presage a substantial move lower in equities.
Moreover, with the Treasury market dead (as in not a real market anymore), USD is only the meaningful market for a policy signal.
If the S&P500 and the Nasdaq sell off, and the dollar doesn’t rally – or if it only rallies a touch – and then resumes selling off – get flat US equity exposure, specifically, and then reduce the risk of markets that that trade with the US. www.macroESG.com #macroESG
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Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message
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By Macro ESGWatch the US dollar. The dollar began selling off - quite literally - with the death of George Floyd (please see the earlier Macro ESG piece on that). The continued weakness in the USD appears to be less tied to risk-off dollars and risk-on equities than it is to people getting out of the US altogether and could presage a substantial move lower in equities.
Moreover, with the Treasury market dead (as in not a real market anymore), USD is only the meaningful market for a policy signal.
If the S&P500 and the Nasdaq sell off, and the dollar doesn’t rally – or if it only rallies a touch – and then resumes selling off – get flat US equity exposure, specifically, and then reduce the risk of markets that that trade with the US. www.macroESG.com #macroESG
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Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message