The US housing industry is facing considerable headwinds as of early September 2025. Over the past 48 hours, data reveals a sharp increase in unsold newly built homes, reaching 121 thousand units for July, the highest level for any July since 2009. At the same time, sales of new single family homes dropped 8.2 percent year over year, falling to 652 thousand units. Existing home sales are also at historic lows, with fewer transactions than in any year since 1995. Experts attribute these issues to persistently high mortgage rates and weak consumer sentiment. Current 30 year fixed mortgage rates hover around 6.5 percent, their lowest in ten months, but this is still too high for many buyers after rates peaked above 7 percent earlier in the year. Underlying these market movements are the effects of federal tariffs and policy shifts, which have kept inflation and borrowing costs high, derailing earlier expectations of rate cuts in 2025.
Investor participation, while down slightly from early this year, remains notably high at 29 percent of home purchases as of June, compared to 25 percent a year earlier. Investors remain active as many first time buyers are priced out by elevated mortgage costs and home prices. Median home prices are rising moderately, with leading forecasters predicting a national increase of about 2.6 percent for 2025, though some markets, especially in the South and Southwest, report softening prices and steeper declines. Inventory levels are surging, especially in cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Austin, where days on market have tripled since last year. Sellers, especially in the luxury segment, are offering increasing concessions as price cuts accelerate, signaling that more substantial corrections could lie ahead.
Despite these challenges, market leaders are holding back on new construction, with permits declining in response to weaker demand. Compared to previous reporting, the gap between unsold homes and active demand is growing, and downward price pressures are becoming more pronounced. Consumers remain cautious, with sentiment around affordability at its weakest levels in decades, and supply chain disruptions are less of a factor now than inflation and demand constraints.
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