US Housing Market: Cooling Conditions Persist in Early May 2025
The US housing market continues to show signs of cooling as we move into May 2025. According to the latest data released this week, home price growth has significantly slowed, with the national median existing-home price reaching $403,700 in March 2025, marking just a 2.7% increase from the previous year[3].
Industry analysts at J.P. Morgan confirm that the market remains "largely frozen" with growth expected to remain at a subdued pace of 3% or less throughout 2025[2]. This aligns with Cotality's May 2025 insights published on May 6th, which noted that while the spring housing market briefly showed signs of growth, these improvements were short-lived[1].
One positive development for buyers is the continued expansion of inventory. Housing supply is up nearly 20% year-over-year according to recent figures, giving prospective homeowners more options to consider[3]. Regional variations are significant, with the West seeing inventory growth of over 40% compared to last year, while the Northeast lags with just 11.3% growth[3].
New construction continues to play an important role, with newly built homes now representing 31.4% of all homes for sale as of February 2025[3]. However, J.P. Morgan's Head of U.S. Homebuilding Research, Michael Rehaut, cautions that "supply should be less of a support for the housing market in 2025" as new homes for sale have reached 481,000 units, the highest level since 2007[2].
Affordability remains a critical challenge, with mortgage rates expected to hover around 7% throughout the year[4]. This continues to sideline potential buyers, contributing to existing home sales hitting a nearly 30-year low last year[4].
Looking ahead, 21 out of 23 industry leaders still forecast modest price appreciation for 2025, primarily due to the increased inventory potentially creating improved market opportunities for first-time homebuyers[3].
This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI