The US housing market has entered a phase of stagnation over the past 48 hours, with national home prices flat for the second consecutive week. Despite a slight drop, mortgage rates remain elevated at an average of 6.61 percent for a 30 year fixed loan, down from 6.67 percent last week. Though expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have increased, most experts do not anticipate rates falling below six percent anytime soon. This has led to persistent affordability challenges, with 81 percent of existing homeowners sitting on mortgages below six percent and little incentive to sell at current rates.
Inventory growth has slowed, and total active listings climbed nearly 25 percent from July 2024 to July 2025. Homes are spending more time on the market, prompting sellers to cut prices to attract scarce buyers, particularly in smaller cities and former hotspots like Florida and Texas. Zillow recently downgraded its 2025 home price outlook to minus 1.7 percent, and predicts price declines of more than ten percent in certain small cities over the next year.
First time buyers face mounting barriers, now making up only 24 percent of purchases, a record low according to the National Association of Realtors. Competition with investors is a growing factor, with investors accounting for 13.5 percent of sales in 2024, often buying homes with all cash. This makes it even harder for individuals, especially young families, to purchase entry level homes.
Leading homebuilders and real estate firms are responding by ramping up construction in markets where the demand supply gap remains sharp, and offering incentives like mortgage buydowns. At the same time, oversupply and falling prices in select cities are pushing some to delay new projects and shift resources toward renovation and rental conversions.
The market currently resembles a standoff: sellers are reluctant to list homes at reduced prices, while buyers wait for affordability to improve. Price reductions and delistings have surged. Compared to last year, the pace of price growth has nearly stalled, a sharp reversal from the rapid appreciation seen in the post pandemic boom. As consumer sentiment remains cautious and supply chain delays persist, the housing industry is in a holding pattern, waiting for a decisive move in rates or economic conditions before momentum returns.
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